How will the next federal government balance new housing with protection of natural spaces?

More Canadians are settling in big cities, rapidly expanding the country’s urban footprint. Prime agricultural land and ecosystems critical to the health of watersheds that attract population growth are in steady decline. 

Municipal and provincial governments are responsible for land use planning to accommodate growth, but leaders of our federal parties, and the previous Liberal government, have made it clear that Ottawa needs to step in.

“The federal government has a critical role in setting the enabling conditions for municipalities and others across provinces like Ontario to be living in harmony with nature, and to be ensuring that biodiversity around us is protected,” Ontario Nature’s conservation campaigns and advocacy manager, Shane Moffatt, told The Pointer.

“The next federal government can do that by really committing to that 30 by 30 target.”

In 2022, at the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, the Government of Canada set the goal of conserving 30 percent of Canada’s land and water by 2030, “because science shows that nature needs our help in order to reverse the decline in biodiversity, better fight climate change, and maintain a strong, sustainable economy”.

That promise matters more than ever across parts of Peel, where the push to build homes, embraced by the federal party leaders, threatens the last remaining natural spaces in the region.

For Mississauga—Streetsville NDP candidate Bushra Asghar, the Liberal government made a lot of promises, “but we're not on track to meet our 30x30 biodiversity targets.” 

“Meanwhile, the Ontario government is gutting environmental protections, dismantling the Greenbelt, and putting short-term developer profits over the long-term well-being of people and ecosystems. Municipalities are often left scrambling without the resources or direction to prioritize green spaces — and the consequences are felt right here in Peel,” Asghar told The Pointer.

As of 2021, nearly half the country’s population lived in just 25 major municipalities, and many of these cities are growing faster than the national average, according to Statistics Canada. Brampton and Mississauga, the second and third largest cities in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area, are prime examples of this shift. 

Brampton experienced the highest population growth among Canada’s largest municipalities, rising by 10.6 percent between 2016 and 2021, from 593,638 to 656,480 residents. Mississauga, by contrast, saw more modest growth, with its population increasing by just 2.9 percent between 2020 and 2024 — from 758,665 to 780,747. According to Statistics Canada, as of 2024 Brampton’s population swelled to 791,486 (a 33 percent increase in eight years) and Mississauga’s was 780,747. With much more room to grow, the city to the north is expected to keep outpacing Mississauga, which is already built out to its borders. 

The trends are widespread. The World Bank reported that 81.86 percent of Canadians lived in urban areas in 2023, and Statistics Canada projects that an even greater share will live in census metropolitan areas in the next two decades.

Continued immigration demand and labour trends globally are projected to drive more and more growth across Canada, as people and companies from around the world look for safe, secure markets and societies to plant roots, especially as the U.S. under Donald Trump becomes less of an option.

During Donald Trump’s presidency, migration to Canada has surged—driven largely by non-citizen U.S. residents seeking stability amid restrictive policies. Under the Joe Biden administration, numbers dropped by 20 percent, even as overall immigration to Canada rose.

(Statistics Canada)

All of this raises a pressing question: as municipalities like Peel’s continue to expand — through new housing, industrial development, and resource extraction — what happens to the biodiverse watersheds that once thrived in these spaces? 

“Population growth is not the cause of biodiversity loss, per se,” Moffatt clarified. “It's really the kind of unsustainable resource extraction and how commodities are being produced, and how we are designing our cities…for municipalities and their sustainable future; what’s critical is building economies that are designed in harmony with nature and avoid harming biodiversity, that is the real solution.”

Peel was once rich with forests and diverse plant life. European surveyors documenting the land between 1806 and 1819 recorded dense woodlands of maple, beech, basswood, and elm, as found by Region of Peel’s regional archivist and supervisor of archival services, Kyle Neill.

In the 1930s, Peel’s unofficial historian Wm. Perkins Bull described the region as a place where remnants of old forests could still be spotted “along the surviving rail and stump fences of the pioneers,” “although by far the greater part of the original forest [in Peel] has been cleared.” 

But even by the 1940s, the landscape had changed dramatically as the region’s population grew. A 1940 conservation report found that most of Peel had already been heavily deforested: Toronto Township (now Mississauga) was 97.2 percent cleared of woodland, Toronto Gore 91.2 percent, and Chinguacousy (now Brampton) 97.8 percent. 

“From these figures it can be seen that the percentage of forest cover is below what it should be, even for such a closely cultivated area,” the report noted.

The consequences were clear — flooding became more frequent in the south, and the water supply in the north was increasingly at risk due to insufficient forest cover.

“It only takes a few hours of rain to have an immediate effect on bringing about flood conditions…,” the report mentioned. “Compare this with the Credit River which rises in the northern part of Peel…Here there is a greater area of woodland and swamp, and the river, after heavy rains, takes considerable time to reach flood proportions.”

Northern Peel fared slightly better — but not by much. Caledon had been 85 percent cleared and Albion 88 percent, posing a serious risk to the region’s water supply.

Predominant vegetation associations map from the 1975 Region of Peel Physical Survey Report, created in preparation for the drafting of the Official Plan.

(Region of Peel archives)

The report warned that without adequate forest cover, the area lacked the natural infrastructure needed to retain water during dry summer months, putting long-term water security in jeopardy.

“At present the percentage of forest cover is far below the requirements necessary to assure that this water supply is adequate and retarded [retained, held back] sufficiently to tide over the dry summer months,” the report said.

Eighty-five years later, Peel is still facing many of the same issues in 2025 — but at a much larger scale.

On April 2 and 3, just days after the federal government cancelled the consumer carbon tax—funding that supported local flood mitigation projects—severe rainfall and flash flooding damaged large sections of Brampton’s trail system, including the recently restored shoreline at Loafer’s Lake.

It was only the latest damaging flood in recent years, and is the direct result of broken promises to protect the natural treasures at the federal, provincial and municipal levels.

In February 2020, Brampton Council launched the One Million Trees Program, pledging to plant them all by 2040.

“To meet the one million trees target by 2040, 50,000 trees on average need to be planted across Brampton each year for the next 20 years,” a 2021 staff report said.

“In 2020, 24,200 trees were planted in Brampton, including 6,100 planted by the City of Brampton.”

Only 23,661 trees have been planted since—over 90 percent short of the target, with a third of those coming from residents in just one ward.

In 2021, the city received a $1.28 million investment from the federal government to plant 8,000 trees.

In 2022, Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown’s capital budget dedicated more funding to a single road project than to all environmental initiatives combined in the same year, when the city faced the Churchville flooding. 

In 2023, climate promises continued to be underfunded. The 2025 budget followed the same pattern—lofty commitments, minimal action.

The city's longstanding flood risk—especially in the downtown core located within the Etobicoke Creek floodplain—prompted officials to allocate $15 million toward the long-overdue Riverwalk Project, a key flood mitigation initiative.

In Mississauga, the story’s a little different, and it begins long, long ago.

In the early 1700s, Ojibwe peoples—whose homelands stretched across the eastern edge of the Anishinaabe world—migrated south to the shores of the Great Lake now called Ontario. They settled near the mouths of the Credit River and Etobicoke Creek, where waters flowed into one of their revered “five freshwater seas.” These people came to be known as the Mississaugas.

Back then, the land was rich with towering White Pines, Sugar Maples, Poplars, and White Cedars — trees that sustained life and culture. But with the arrival of European settlers, the landscape was quickly cleared to make way for farms and industry. The sacred trees once honoured by the Mississaugas were lost, replaced by roads, subdivisions, and pavement.

Today, parts of Mississauga face a stark deficit of green space. According to the city’s 2022 Parks Plan, areas like Streetsville (0.7 hectares per 1,000 residents), Clarkson Village (0.6 hectares), and Sheridan (0 hectares) are critically underserved by available parkland .

“A healthy and resilient urban forest is critical to fighting climate change and to sustaining a healthy and vibrant community for future generations,” a staff report from the City’s forestry division stated.

But even as the need grows more urgent, the City’s forestry division is struggling to keep up. A growing backlog of work orders has led to delayed service, higher costs, and increased pressure on staff. Between 2012 and 2022, the number of service requests rose 16 percent, and work orders ballooned by 144 percent. Since 2021, tree permit applications alone have increased by a staggering 694 percent.

“Mississauga is growing, and the demand for forestry services is growing right along with that,” Amory Ngan, the City’s Manager of Forestry, said. “Our mandate is to protect, enhance, restore, and expand Mississauga’s urban forests and natural heritage systems.”

While tree planting is often seen as a key strategy to combat climate change, a 2021 study by Nature United found that only five percent of the greenhouse gas emissions mitigated by tree cover come from restoration efforts. In contrast, preserving existing green spaces can reduce emissions by 30 megatonnes, accounting for 40 percent of the total identified reductions.

Currently, over two million trees are protected under the City’s various environmental plans, including the Natural Heritage & Urban Forest Strategy and the Invasive Species Management Plan. In 2013, Mississauga pledged to add another one million trees by 2032 — a target aligned with a broader federal initiative.

That federal initiative, launched by the Liberal government in 2022, promised to plant two billion trees across Canada by 2031. The $3.2 billion commitment was meant to support provinces, municipalities, Indigenous groups and third-party organizations. Meeting the goal would require Natural Resources Canada to oversee the planting of 200 million trees annually.

But like many climate promises, the execution has fallen short.

A 2023 Auditor General report found that while the first-year goal of 30 million trees in 2021 was nearly achieved, only 2.3 percent of the total target had been planted by the end of year two. 

The federal government missed its planting target for the 2023-24 season, planting 46.6 million trees instead of the planned 60 million. With only seven seasons left, over 1.8 billion trees must still be planted to meet the 2 billion tree goal by 2031.

The Auditor General's report concluded the two-billion-tree target is “unlikely” to be met without major structural changes.

Locally, Mississauga-based environmental advocate Rahul Mehta has contemplated the idea of creating a citizen-led planting program, and municipalities possibly partnering with federal funding to build tree nurseries on undeveloped land, such as brownfields, to help meet this target.

“The City's already told the public we could do small tree giveaways, but we're struggling to keep up with the demands of planting more trees, because we're not growing enough trees, and this felt like the federal tree target of two billion trees is behind schedule, apparently,” he said. 

But the cost of delay became painfully clear in 2024, when  Mississauga faced two back-to-back 100-year floods that struck in July and August leaving many residents’ basements flooded, major highways blocked with Mayor Carolyn Parrish calling on Ottawa to approve funding for vital flood prevention and infrastructure projects. The mayor expressed frustration that the city was being "left to dry" while other municipalities, like Toronto, continued to receive preferential treatment.

This wasn’t an anomaly. A 2013 storm in Mississauga had caused $932 million in damages across Mississauga and the Greater Toronto Area. Previous storms in 2005 and 2009 added nearly $1 billion in damages combined.

To add to the worries, the health of Mississauga and Brampton’s watersheds has been steadily deteriorating.

In the 2023 Watershed Report Card released by Credit Valley Conservation (CVC), parts of Mississauga and Brampton received failing grades for watershed and forest conditions.

The report looked at surface water quality indicators, including phosphorus levels, E. coli concentrations, and populations of benthic macroinvertebrates or small aquatic creatures that live in streambeds and are sensitive to pollution. 

The data, drawn from 2017 to 2021, paints a troubling picture.

The Credit Valley watershed received a ‘C’ for surface water quality but specific areas within Mississauga and Brampton scored much lower.

The central stretch of the Credit River managed a ‘C’ grade, buoyed by the cleaner, rural headwaters that flow south from Orangeville. But surrounding areas — particularly in highly urbanized sections of Mississauga — scored Ds and Fs. These zones see heavy runoff from roads, parking lots, and paved surfaces, which funnel pollutants directly into streams with little chance for natural filtration.

(Credit Valley Conservation)

“Poor water quality can be harmful to fish and other aquatic life. For example, high concentrations of nutrients can cause excess algae growth and reduce the amount of oxygen available to aquatic life,” the report highlighted.

Brampton fared slightly better in water quality due to its proximity to less-developed rural zones, but failed in another critical area: forest cover. 

Forest conditions in the urbanized lower watershed are generally Poor (D) to Very Poor (F), with insufficient interior habitat and overall forest cover. Interior habitats, located away from forest edges, are vital for protecting species sensitive to edge effects, as they help minimize negative impacts from adjacent land uses, including noise, light pollution, encroachment, and road mortality.

(Credit Valley Conservation)

The eastern section of Brampton received an ‘F’ for forest conditions — an alarming indicator of habitat loss and reduced natural resilience.

Urban development doesn’t just harm watershed and forest quality—it also makes the area hotter than surrounding rural regions.

A 2017 Region of Peel study highlighted the growing urban heat island effect, showing how land use patterns are directly influencing local temperatures.

The average annual temperature from 1981 to 2010 was higher in the southern parts of Peel.

(Region of Peel)

While the northern reaches of Peel — including Caledon — still feature greener landscapes with forests, farmland, and grasslands, the southern, densely developed zones are warming rapidly. Asphalt, concrete, and dark rooftops trap heat, causing urban areas to remain significantly hotter than their rural surroundings.

Forests, watersheds and wetlands are spaces for the natural world to thrive in.

Peel’s three major watersheds — the Credit River, Etobicoke Creek, and Humber River — collectively support rich biodiversity, including 65 provincially and federally at-risk species in the Credit River watershed, at least eight endangered or threatened terrestrial species and 51 species of regional conservation concern in the Etobicoke Creek watershed, and over 500 plant and animal species of regional conservation concern in the Humber River watershed.

The Etobicoke Creek Watershed Plan (2024–2034) was approved by the TRCA Board on November 22, 2024, following adoption by partner municipalities — including Toronto, Mississauga, Peel, Brampton, and Caledon — and developed collaboratively with the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation and the Greater Toronto Airports Authority. Implementation is now underway.

(Toronto and Region Conservation Authority)

With each party doubling down on ambitious housing targets, parts of northern Peel, especially Caledon, are facing intense development pressure. The Conservatives are targeting the construction of 2.3 million homes in just five years, the Liberals have pledged to double Canada’s annual housing output to nearly 500,000 homes, and the NDP aims to build 3 million homes by 2030. With most of southern Peel already urbanized, the largely undeveloped lands in the north represent the region’s final frontier for major expansion. But this availability comes with a cost: these are also the most ecologically sensitive areas in Peel. 

Caledon’s forests, wetlands, and farmland are more than just open space—they are critical to maintaining regional biodiversity, moderating local temperatures, and sustaining the health of major watersheds like the Credit River, Etobicoke Creek, and Humber River. As growth accelerates, the paradox becomes clear: this is the only area left to build, but it's also the area most in need of protection.

These areas have already been under threat due to “undemocratic” legislation passed by the Ontario government to fast-track projects like Highway 413, which would cut through Peel’s remaining green spaces.

One major failure by the federal Liberal government to protect at-risk species was its decision not to subject Highway 413 to a federal environmental review, despite repeated calls from environmental organizations and clear warnings from scientists.

Highway 413 would threaten the terrestrial and aquatic habitats of at least 29 federally listed species, including the redside dace, rapids clubtail, Jefferson salamander, eastern meadowlark, bobolink, and Blanding’s turtle, a previous investigation by The Pointer found. 

The Pointer contacted all four party candidates in the Caledon ridings to inquire whether they would take action to halt the construction of Highway 413 but received no response.

(Joel Wittnebel/The Pointer Files)

The proposed Highway 413 route passes through the Credit River, Etobicoke Creek, and Humber River watersheds, impacting critical ecosystems and biodiversity in these vital environmental areas.

(Environmental Defence) 

“The lower and mid reaches of all three of these watersheds have already been significantly urbanized over the past six decades in a manner that has negatively impacted their natural heritage systems and water quality. The watersheds are threatened with further degradation from this highway and the urban sprawl it will enable,” a 2024 report by Environmental Defence stressed.

The decision was especially critical for municipalities in Peel, where the Ontario government under Premier Doug Ford has repeatedly fast-tracked controversial policies without meaningful public consultation or thorough environmental assessments, including the rushed approval of Highway 413. 

A scathing report released by Ontario’s Auditor General in 2024 criticized the Ford government for routinely ignoring its obligations under the Environmental Bill of Rights — often bypassing public consultation entirely or disregarding community feedback on environmental matters.

“Over the past decade, we have found cases almost every year where ministries did not meet their EBR requirements to consult the public. In 2023/24, Ontarians were denied their EBR right to be consulted about three environmentally significant laws,” the report highlighted.

The PC government has been advancing the development of the Ring of Fire, a mineral-rich region in northern Ontario crucial for electric vehicle production, without fully informing Ontarians of the significant environmental risks involved.

Mining in sensitive areas could release carbon from forests, wetlands, and peatlands, potentially undermining the emissions reductions gained from the shift to electric vehicles (EV). This is especially concerning in the Ring of Fire, which not only contains valuable mineral deposits but is also home to fragile, low-lying swamp ecosystems.

The federal auditor general raised concerns about the environmental impact of such developments in a November 2024 report. 

“Increased mining activities will result in adverse environmental effects and increase greenhouse gas emissions, which could compromise Canada’s ability to meet its commitments to climate action, biodiversity and Indigenous reconciliation,” Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development Jerry V. DeMarco noted.

“Otherwise, the benefits of advancing technology in support of the transition to net-zero emissions could be offset by adverse effects on climate, biodiversity, Indigenous communities, and future generations.

But Ford's government and the mining industry contend that developing the Ring of Fire is essential to meet the increasing demand for critical minerals used in electric vehicle production, with billions of dollars being invested in Ontario’s EV sector.

To make resource extraction easier, the Ford government introduced the Protect Ontario by Unleashing Our Economy Act, 2025 on April 17. 

If passed, the bill aims to cut through what the government calls a “maze of bureaucracy” and red tape that have delayed major infrastructure and resource projects, including those in the Ring of Fire. The bill would streamline the approval process, speed up project timelines, and reduce costs—all while “maintaining robust environmental standards,” according to the government. A blatantly misleading statement as the new legislation effectively eliminates crucial laws meant to protect species at risk. 

This is history repeating itself when Bill 212 was passed to speed up the construction of Highway 413 and the Bradford Bypass.

Environmental advocates say Bill 5 (Protect Ontario by Unleashing Our Economy Act) would significantly weaken protections for species at risk in the province.

“The government's Bill [5], would, if passed, repeal Ontario's Endangered Species Act, marking the end of most meaningful provincial protections for endangered, threatened and special concern species in Ontario. The proposed Species Conservation Act, 2025 is little more than a fig leaf,” Phil Pothen, Ontario Environment Program Manager at Environmental Defence, said.

The new law would drastically narrow the definition of "habitat" to only include the immediate dwelling areas of animal species. “Even those tiny slivers of critical habitat that this law would recognize would not be off-limits for destruction.” The law would replace prohibitions on habitat destruction with a registration requirement, and enforcement officers would lose the authority to stop harmful activities. 

“Bill [5] would place even the recognition that species are endangered, threatened, extirpated, or of special concern at the sole discretion of the current government. That decision would be taken out of the hands of the Committee on the Status of Species at Risk in Ontario (the expert committee that designates endangered species under the current law),” Pothen said with concern.

With these provincial trends showing no sign of slowing, experts say the incoming federal government will need to step in decisively to ensure environmental protections are upheld and vulnerable species are not pushed closer to extinction.

“It's really important, when we think of endangered species in Ontario, that the federal government is supporting with strongly implementing the Species at Risk Act, that's going to have a very important role to play in maintaining biodiversity in the province of Ontario,” Moffatt said.

In a statement on his campaign website, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is pushing a bold plan to green-light all federal permits for the Ring of Fire in Northern Ontario within six months to unlock valuable minerals like chromite, cobalt, nickel, copper, and platinum, vital to the EV industry, and secure Canada’s position in the global market.

“The Carney-Trudeau Liberals have known about the Ring of Fire’s massive economic potential for a decade, but didn’t approve a single road, or allow a single mine to get constructed. The Liberals did everything in their power to keep these minerals in the ground by sitting on permits for five whole years and passing Bill C-69, which makes resource projects like these very difficult, if not impossible, to get approved at all.”

Federal NDP candidate for Mississauga–Lakeshore, Evelyn Butler told The Pointer it is essential to have “enhanced protection laws around urban forests, wetlands, and natural heritage areas by all levels of government working together to enforce smart land-use planning.” 

Butler advocates for expanding protected areas, restoring ecosystems, investing in green infrastructure, and the need for sustainable development that balances environmental protection with the growing demands of “an ever-growing population that comes with a longer list of community needs.”

This is critical because even when municipalities are willing to take action, they often face significant challenges in securing the funding necessary to address environmental issues.

On April 15, 2025, Caledon Councillor Doug Maskell proposed a motion to incorporate turtle considerations into the Town of Caledon’s Natural Heritage and Urban Forest Strategy.

“The presence of turtles is a key indicator of healthy and resilient ecosystems,” the motion stated, noting that habitat loss, fragmentation, and road mortality are primary factors in the rapid decline of local turtle populations.

But the primary concern raised by councillors was the cost, with Councillor Dave Sheen being one of the first to ask, "Where are we going to get the money from?"

Ontario Nature’s Moffatt believes it is important for the federal government to support municipal efforts “by investing more in nature-based climate solutions.”

“For example, in the work I’m involved in, we’re helping municipalities protect local wetlands. Conserving wetlands offers significant benefits, from mitigating flooding and maintaining biodiversity to purifying water. These are win-win solutions that the federal government can actively support at the local level.”

It is crucial for intergovernmental cooperation and for the federal government to step in, as the Government of Ontario has not yet committed to the 30 by 30 target, as recommended by its Protected Areas Working Group. Currently, less than 11 percent of the province is protected, and in the end, it is municipalities and their residents that bear the burden of this inaction.

For Mehta, a Mississauga resident and founder of Sustainability Mississauga, the next federal government “needs to shift our focus away from just emission targets and start addressing the real, tangible impacts on the ground.” 

That means “how much rain is falling and accumulating, how many 100-year floods we have, how much temperatures are increasing in our poorest neighbourhoods, those impacting people right now and how much of our biodiversity, our wild spaces is disappearing,” he said. 

“We can't just keep giving thoughts and prayers to it and then suddenly trying to create an incentive program after the disaster. We have to start being proactive and not reactive. And I think that means realizing that these big, lofty numbers and big, lofty projects are actually a misguided approach to what is on the ground.”

At a time when Canada’s 30x30 commitment — the goal to protect 30 percent of the country’s lands and waters by 2030 — appears disconnected from local efforts, experts warn that the target is far from guaranteed without a strong, enforceable plan in place.

NDP’s Asghar committed to The Pointer that the party will “legally enshrine” the 30x30 commitments with concrete accountability and dedicated funding.

The party also pledges to collaborate with municipalities and Indigenous nations to ensure that local green spaces, wetlands, and natural corridors are preserved, not paved over. Asghar noted the party plans to create a federal Nature Strategy that includes protections for urban biodiversity, recognizing that people in Peel deserve clean air, healthy ecosystems, and accessible natural spaces.

“Development cannot come at the cost of destruction. We need homes and habitats — and with bold political will, we can have both. The NDP is ready to fight for that balance and protect the wild spaces that make this country — and this region — so special,” Asghar concluded.

The Pointer also reached out to Conservative Party of Canada and Green Party candidates in ridings across Peel for comment, but none responded. 

This story is part of The 89 Percent Project, an initiative of the global journalism collaboration: Covering Climate Now.

The Pointer's 2025 federal election coverage is partly supported by the Covering Canada: Election 2025 Fund. 

Email: [email protected]

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