Saving democracy under Trump’s second term won’t matter if the planet burns: UN report lays out the challenge 

It’s Halloween 2024. I step outside around 6:30 p.m. in a long-sleeve t-shirt, and not even 10 minutes into my walk, I’m already sweating.

As I stroll along, I overhear two people on the sidewalk reminiscing about the days of wearing snow pants under their costumes, not that long ago.

The Greater Toronto Area hit a Halloween heat milestone, reaching 22.8 degrees Celsius in Toronto and 21 degrees Celsius in Peel Region—about 13 to 14 degrees above typical late October temperatures.

Climate change deniers would chalk it up as an anomaly, the cherry picking of a fluke data point to extrapolate a much worse reality. 

But the evidence of our changing climate is not just anecdotal. Global temperature data show the Earth’s climate has been rapidly warming. Most recently, many countries around the world, including Canada, experienced their hottest fall in decades. According to NASA last year was the warmest ever recorded, globally. We will soon find out about this year.

Autumn 2024 has been the hottest in decades, contributing to what the World Meteorological Organization estimates will be the hottest year ever recorded on Earth.

(Alexis Wright/The Pointer Files) 

In light of these alarming figures, the United Nations Environment Programme’s 15th annual “emissions gap” report calls for “no more hot air” warning that without swift action to reduce climate pollution, the Paris Agreement's foundational goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees could be out of reach within a few short years.

The UNEP report urges countries to enhance their ambitions in their 2035 climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) which are due in early 2025. The current plans do not match the necessary reductions needed to achieve the Paris target and avoid catastrophic impacts of global warming. 

“As things stand, current NDCs put the world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.6-2.8 degrees this century. Even worse, policies currently in place are insufficient to meet even these NDCs. If nothing changes, we are heading for a temperature rise of 3.1 degrees,” UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said in a statement announcing the report’s release.

“Climate crunch time is here. The new NDCs and their implementation must collectively cut 42 percent off greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5 degrees. Looking out to 2035, emissions must fall by 57 percent. In annual terms, we need to shave 7.5 percent off emissions every year until 2035, a figure that will grow with each year of inaction,” Andersen added  while emphasizing that the world should use COP29 to "increase action now, set the stage for dramatically stronger NDCs that target 1.5°C, and then go all out to deliver the necessary emissions cuts by 2030, by 2035 and beyond until net-zero is achieved." 

COP29, the UN’s 2024 Climate Change Conference is currently underway, running until November 22. 

The report puts a significant emphasis on solar, wind and forests “holding real promise for sweeping and fast emissions cuts,” and meeting these targets.  

“Remarkably, increased deployment of just two proven and cost-competitive options – solar photovoltaic and wind energy – makes up 27 percent of the total emission reduction potential in 2030 and 38 percent in 2035,” the report highlighted.

Last year saw GHG emissions increase across the G20 members. These large large countries are responsible for 77 percent of global emissions with the power sector or electricity production being the largest contributor, followed by transport, agriculture and industry. The world’s least developed countries, while staring down the most significant impacts of global warming—floods, famine, displacement, coastal erosion, flooding—accounted for only 3 percent of emissions.

In Canada, the oil and gas industry, and transportation are the largest emissions sources, with buildings, heavy industry, and agriculture following closely behind, as per Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan.

On Monday, the federal government proposed regulations to cap emissions within the oil and gas sector which contributed 31 percent of the national total in 2022, aiming for a 35 percent reduction from 2019 levels. This cap-and-trade model incentivizes companies to lower emissions by rewarding cleaner operations and pressuring higher emitters to invest in sustainable practices.

While this reduction is a major step toward meeting Canada's NDCs, environmental experts argue that the regulation needs strengthening to be truly effective, and formalizing the regulation before an election is called. They also warn that loopholes in the proposed regulation allowing oil and gas companies to rely on offsets and decarbonization funds could undermine progress. 

Public consultations for these regulations will take place from November 9 to January 8, 2025, supporting Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan and aligning with the International Energy Agency’s forecast of a global oil demand peak by 2030 if further policies are not introduced.

Cutting emissions in Canada’s oil and gas industry and transportation are crucial steps to reaching goals outlined in the country’s climate plans.

(2030 Emissions Reduction Plan)

While Canada makes strides to address its climate commitments, the situation in Alberta, the country’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, remains grim.

Alberta’s largest emitting sector, the oil and gas industry, generates 59.8 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita—over three times the national average of 18.2.

Concerns about emissions targets took a back seat when members of Alberta's United Conservative Party voted in favor of removing provincial emissions reduction targets and officially recognizing carbon dioxide as “a foundational nutrient for all life on earth” at the UCP’s annual general meeting in Red Deer on November 2.

In Canada, the average temperature increase has been roughly twice the global average – this is resulting in increased frequency of extreme weather events, including wildfires, flooding and heat waves, which exacerbate local socio-economic challenges faced by communities, while devastating ecosystems across the country.

In 2023, more than 250,000 Canadians had their lives upended by unprecedented wildfires and floods. According to Environment and Natural Resources Canada, a staggering 90 percent of the Alert Ready warnings issued in 2023 came from wildfire and weather hazards.

Natural catastrophes and severe weather events caused over $3.1 billion in insured damage for two consecutive years with 2023 being “the fourth-worst year for insured losses” in the country, according to the Insurance Bureau of Canada.

Mississauga firefighters rescue a stranded driver during flooding in the city this past August.

(Mississauga Fire and Emergency Services)

The need for countries like Canada to push harder to reach net-zero targets is now more important than ever. 

While all G20 members except Mexico and the African Union have set net-zero targets, limited progress has been made since last year’s assessment on the key indicators of confidence in net-zero implementation, including legal status, the existence and quality of implementation plans and the alignment of near-term emissions trajectories with net-zero targets, as per the UNEP report. It means that when countries should be accelerating action to mitigate and adapt to climate change, many are sitting idle. 

Canada’s current Paris Agreement target aims for a 40-45 percent reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2030, with a long-term goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Since signing the agreement, Canada’s emissions have mostly been going in the wrong direction, save for a small decline during the lockdowns triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Canada’s emissions reductions are not on track to reach the goals set out in the Paris Accord.

(Statistics Canada)

A silver lining emerged in 2020 as the pandemic caused an industrial slowdown and notable reductions in trade and travel, both by air and land contributing to a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in the transport sector, which saw a 16 percent decline from 2019.

As economic activities partially recovered in 2021, emissions rebounded, increasing by 12 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. 

This upward trend continued in 2022, with Canada's total GHG emissions increasing 1.3 percent to 708 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent from 698 in 2021.

As previously reported by The Pointer, while Canada’s federal Ministry of Environment and Climate Change has reassured the public in the past that the country is on track to meet its 2030 target, recent audits by Environment Commissioner Jerry DeMarco reveal otherwise. 

Using the government’s data, DeMarco projects a shortfall of about 50 megatonnes between Canada’s likely emissions and the 2030 goal, highlighting gaps in the Climate Change Action Plan; missed deadlines; and absent emission reduction targets for many of the plan’s 80 measures. DeMarco criticized the government’s “overly optimistic” assumptions, which overlooked the financial and health impacts of climate change and relied heavily on emerging technologies like carbon capture, which have yet to see widespread deployment.

Anna Kanduth, Director of the Canadian Climate Institute’s 440 Megatonnes initiative, conducted an independent review of the federal government’s progress report on its 2030 emissions reduction plan, later submitted to UNEP.

She told The Pointer that Canada’s current and proposed policies—including those already in place and those under development—are projected to reduce emissions to 34 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 which shows considerable progress, “but still short of Canada's 2030 target.”

Greenhouse gas emissions by province and territory, Canada, 1990, 2005 and 2022.

(Government of Canada)

Provincially, Ontario remains the second largest emitter in the country after Alberta, generating 157 megatonnes of carbon emissions in 2022, according to the annual national inventory of emissions report. This figure is nearly on par with Ontario's emissions of 158 megatonnes in 2017, the first year of the cap-and-trade program introduced under Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government, and later scrapped by Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative (PC) government in 2018.

Under the Cap and Trade Cancellation Act, Ontario’s Progressive Conservative government established a target to reduce emissions by 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This target is less ambitious than the previous benchmarks under the Climate Change Mitigation and Low-carbon Economy Act, which aimed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, 37 percent by 2030, and 80 percent by 2050. The revised targets are currently being challenged in the courts through a historical case brought forward by seven youth advocates alleging the PC permitting increased emissions  violates their constitutional rights to life, liberty, security, and equality.

The picture closer to home isn’t any different.

A 2022 report from The Atmospheric Fund reveals a broader increase in emissions across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, with overall emissions rising by 9 percent—surpassing pre-pandemic levels from 2019. Transportation remains the leading contributor, with emissions in this sector up by 11 percent, driving per capita emissions to 7.7 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per person, a 7 percent increase over 2021. These figures will only be exacerbated by the PC government to continue to build 400-series highways like the Bradford Bypass or Highway 413. The latter is once again under review by the federal Impact Assessment Agency for a potential impact assessment—a more stringent review of the project that could lead to its cancellation. 

The Region of Peel remains the second-largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions in the province, having emitted 11.3 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2022, representing 21 percent of greenhouse gas emissions across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and roughly seven percent of Ontario's total emissions.

“The Region’s most recent corporate GHG emissions inventory is 31.4 percent below the target of 45 percent below 2010 levels by 2030 with approximately 18,600 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent to still reduce. This represents a decrease of 0.6 percent compared to the previous year’s emissions,” Director of Climate Change and Energy Management Christine Tu told The Pointer.

She argues that the decrease was driven by several key initiatives, including a pilot project at the G.E. Booth Wastewater Treatment Plant, which redirected biosolids from incineration to beneficial land application, reducing GHG emissions by 2,940 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. 

Sustained reductions in employee commuting due to the Region’s flexible work policy cut emissions by another 1,900 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

“The Region is currently refreshing its Climate Change Master Plan. The refreshed plan will maintain the current 2030 GHG target and propose to the Regional Council a new interim 2035 target that will also be science-based,” Tu added.

In an interview with The Pointer, Dr. Shashi Kant, Director of the MSc in Sustainability Management Program at the University of Toronto Mississauga, expressed skepticism that any G20 country, including Canada, would meet its 2030 climate targets.

He says if we look at Canada’s emissions from 2005 to 2023, the reduction is just around five to eight percent over 18 years. “We're only seven years away from 2030,” he warned.

Kant’s point is underscored by the latest Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE) by the Canadian Climate Institute, which indicates that Canada achieved only a modest one percent reduction in emissions in 2023 compared to 2022.

“Progress was uneven across sectors, with electricity showing large drops in emissions while oil and gas emissions rose,” the study found.

Meanwhile, Kanduth says “Canada's 2030 target is technically achievable, but again, success is going to depend on how quickly and effectively governments implement policies to meet it,” but three strategies are key in achieving this.

The first key step is to finalize and fully implement the “policies that are already on the table,” such as stricter methane regulations in the oil and gas sector. 

“Our analysis shows that the existing plan can make substantial progress toward 2030 targets if these policies are accelerated and enforced effectively,” she noted.

The second strategy involves “work with the existing policy architecture” to strengthen existing measures—for instance, addressing issues within the industrial carbon pricing system which is a major driver of emissions reductions. 

The issue of carbon pricing has become incredibly contentious in Canada as misinformation, some fuelled by politicians, continues to muddy the waters about the benefits of this system.

A recent report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) shows that carbon pricing benefits over 50 percent of Canadians, especially lower-income households. Even when factoring in economic modeling that downplays the tax's benefits, the majority of Canadians still come out ahead.

For example, in Saskatchewan, 60 percent of residents are projected to see a net benefit of $606 by 2030, despite the higher tax rate. 

Poilievre, however, focuses on the tax’s impact on wealthier Canadians, misrepresenting the overall benefit for most Canadians by emphasizing average figures that ignore the advantages for lower-income households.

The third approach is to identify and introduce a focused set of new measures to close the remaining gap and meet the 2030 emissions targets.

The UNEP report highlights that Canada, alongside nine other G20 nations, needs to substantially increase decarbonization efforts, particularly after 2030, to meet its net-zero goals.

The future of environmental progress, however, could be at risk with Donald Trump’s reelection, as fossil fuels and mining industries expect a more favourable regulatory environment under his leadership.

On his campaign website under the “20 core promises to make America great again”, Trump pushed for more domestic oil and gas production with the aim to “DRILL, BABY, DRILL.”

“Make America the dominant energy producer in the world, by far!” the promise reads. 

Another worry that looms large at this critical juncture is the U.S. pulling out of the Paris agreement which Trump had done previously within six months of his presidency in 2017. 

He has also criticized wind and solar energy subsidies. Another one of his core promises is to “cancel the electric vehicle mandate and cut costly and burdensome regulations” putting the shift to renewable energy at risk.

Trump’s stance directly opposes the goals set by the UNEP.

With the upcoming deadline for submitting new NDCs, the United Nations is calling for clarity from countries on how their new plans will support the required tripling of renewable energy capacity and doubling annual energy efficiency rates by 2030, as agreed at COP28 last year; while also facilitating a transition away from fossil fuels, to restore and protect our natural world.

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