Will species on the brink of extinction be enough to kill Highway 413?

To Premier Doug Ford, Highway 413 is a done deal. 

The federal government has agreed to allow the project to proceed—he claims—and the PCs are pushing ahead with preliminary studies and consultation with private stakeholders to move construction forward “quickly and efficiently”.

Imposing signs with steel frames stand cemented on the shoulders of Highway 401 and 400—the start and end points of this proposed mega highway—declaring the corridor as the “future site of Highway 413”. The signs are viewed by thousands of commuters every day.

Land acquisitions are planned to begin in the fall for properties along the proposed 59-kilometre route from Milton to Vaughan (the PC government has yet to explain why it is putting so much energy and money to connect two areas with very low commuting and commercial trucking demand between them); early works contracts are to be stamped to facilitate construction starting in 2025; bedrock depth is being tested, soil composition evaluated and “project acceleration” strategies studied to squeeze this highway for every cent of its economic potential—which the PCs say will contribute about $350 million to the provincial GDP (without providing the source of the figure). However, it has been shown that Ford’s developer friends stand to make billions in profits for assembling land next to and within the Greenbelt where the future 413, it just so happens, will one day run if the builders and the premier get their way. This, critics have said, is the real reason land between Milton and Vaughan is being connected, despite no need to do so, other than to increase the value of properties built next to a poorly planned 400-series highway.

“We’re getting it done,” Ford declared during an April press conference in Caledon, sporting a victorious grin, flanked by tradespeople and construction machinery. The PCs claim the highway will provide 3,500 jobs each year during construction. This despite the accelerated need for workers to support the residential construction for the PC goal of building 1.5 million homes by 2031, combined with a projected national shortage of skilled trade workers of 85,500 employees by 2033 (according to BuildForce Canada data) — it’s uncertain whether the hands will be available to swing the hammers and operate the necessary highway-building machinery to construct the 413. 

Premier Doug Ford celebrating his claim that Highway 413 will begin construction in 2025.

(CPAC)

Studying the work that needs to be done ahead of construction, as well as a deal signed with the federal government, shows the PC narrative that this controversial highway is finalized and will begin construction next year is a pipe dream. 

The PR stunt could be a tactic to quell opposition. If Ontarians believe the battle is no longer worth fighting, perhaps the thousands of people who have protested the controversial mega project will give up and stay home—it appears to have worked with Caledon Mayor Annette Groves, once a staunch opponent to the project who has reversed her stance claiming the highway is a done deal. Groves is now pushing through a controversial, potentially environmentally disastrous, sprawl development plan in Caledon; many of the subject lands are along the Highway 413 route. 

“Don’t buy the hype that this thing is happening tomorrow or next year,” Laura Bowman, a lawyer with Ecojustice stated during a public forum earlier this year hosted by advocacy group Stop the 413.

Ontarians are going to see a lot of posturing, Bowman said. The premier standing in front of signs and bulldozers; the premier and his ministers clearing a small patch of land; the premier shaking hands with union and construction leaders—none of it can erase the fact there are still significant studies that need to be completed before work moves ahead. 

The very basic design of the highway has yet to be completed. 

“Don’t fall for these gimmicks,” Bowman said. 

A forum hosted by Stop the 413 earlier this year was filled with residents from across the GTA concerned about the negative impacts.

(Joel Wittnebel/The Pointer)

A review of the environmental assessment process casts significant doubt on the PC claim that construction will begin next year. 

To even begin lifting a single shovelful of dirt to build this highway, the PCs will need to conduct a series of lengthy studies—something that could potentially take years, not months, as they are currently claiming. 

One such study that typically forms part of the process for large transportation infrastructure is a Transportation Environmental Study Report (TESR). These investigative reports—typically completed after preliminary design is finished—document the environmental conditions of the land around the project; evaluate alternatives to the proposal; present mitigation or protection measures necessary to address the environmental threats; and include consultations with the public, government agencies and other stakeholders. 

Currently, Highway 413 is subject to the province’s Class Environmental Assessment process. While the PC government has made significant efforts to weaken this system, cutting and flaying key pieces of the legislation, it remains unclear whether the 413 can move forward without this report. The Ministry of Transportation (MTO) did not respond to questions from The Pointer ahead of publication. 

If the 413 is subject to a TESR, these detailed reports can take years to complete. 

The TESR for a single interchange on Highway 416 in South Ottawa took nearly two years between January 2021 and September 2023. This included a study area of 1-square kilometre around the proposed interchange. That is less than 2 percent of the size of the proposed 59-kilometre Highway 413, not including any buffer area around the corridor or its proposed interchanges. 

A TESR for the rehabilitation of a 4.5 kilometre stretch of Highway 401 in Brockville took over three years to complete between August 2020 and November 2023. 

The TESR for rehabilitation of a 3.2 kilometre section of Highway 148 in the County of Renfrew lasted three years, between 2015 and 2018. 

Even updating a TESR report can take a significant amount of time. Improvement plans for a 30 kilometre stretch of Highway 400 in Barrie was studied between 2001 and 2004; then revisited in April of 2014 before a final version was completed in 2017. It's over 6 years of study for an improvement plan—not a new highway—and the area is still not as big as the proposed 413. 

The PC government argues that these studies are bloated and repetitive (though they rarely provide examples of exactly what is duplicative in the process) and are currently looking for shortcuts to circumvent parts of this Act. They have exempted the Bradford Bypass from parts of the Class EA process—instead relying on a study that is over two decades old to build a highway through the provincially significant Holland Marsh—and attempted to do the same thing with Highway 413 before the federal government stepped in to designate it under the Impact Assessment Act. 

The government is also currently looking to change the legislation to allow them to begin expropriating land for the highway before the environmental assessment process has even been completed. It’s a move that has been heavily criticized by advocates and opposition politicians.

“It makes you wonder why we even have a provincial environmental assessment at that point,” Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said. 

Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner speaks during a public forum on Highway 413 earlier this year.

(Joel Wittnebel/The Pointer)

It remains unclear to what degree the PC government has completed any of this work, or whether a consultant has been retained to complete the TESR report. Part of that study would include the evaluation of potential alternatives to Highway 413. 

A study commissioned by the former Liberal government which led to the highway proposal being scrapped, found the billions of dollars needed to build the highway would be much better invested into high order public transit and the enhancement of existing road infrastructure. It found the highway would not solve southern Ontario’s congestion problem, despite the repeated claims by the PC government. The independent study has been scrubbed from government websites. 

Advocates believe there is an obvious alternative the PC government is refusing to consider, Highway 407. 

A study completed for Environmental Defence analyzed the best methods for achieving the PC goal of reducing gridlock in southern Ontario—a real problem that costs the economy as much as $11 billion annually—that would be cheaper and less destructive than Highway 413.

It found estimates of purported time savings as a result of this new highway are incredibly unreliable. The independent study commissioned by the Liberals in 2018, which found the time savings would be about 30 seconds for the average commuter, is criticized for reportedly including trips across the Greater Golden Horseshoe, not strictly in the area of Highway 413. The estimate from the PC government—30 minutes—isn’t any closer to the true number either. According to the Environmental Defence study, the PC analysis assumed free-flowing traffic on the 413. 

“This is unlikely to occur in the real-world as induced demand from new drivers will rapidly fill up the 413,” the study states. 

This phenomenon has already been reported in congestion studies completed for the Bradford Bypass, which show the highway currently being marketed as the ultimate solution to traffic woes in the area south of Lake Simcoe, will actually become congested by 2041. The environmental degradation will last for centuries, some of it irreversible. 

Environmental Defence, along with Transport Action Ontario, has pushed the government to consider a subsidy for truck drivers to help cover the costs of the 407 tolls. This would pull thousands of trucks off Highway 401 each day and help relieve congestion while focusing on investments into high order transit. A study estimated a subsidy to cover the full costs of the toll for trucks would cost the government, $4 billion. This is much less than the price tag of Highway 413—which the PCs refuse to release—but could be as high as $10 billion.

It’s unclear if the PC government has been in contact with the owners of the 407. MTO did not respond to questions from The Pointer. 

Peter Miasek, a director of Transport Action Ontario, speaking during the forum hosted by Stop the 413 in May, said he has contacted the owners of the 407 who were “very interested” in the subsidy proposal. 

Current estimates suggest the 407 is operating at about 20 percent capacity. A 2021 study from Transport Action Ontario estimated a subsidy could remove anywhere between 12,000 and 21,000 trucks a day from Highway 401. While 450,000 vehicles grind through the 401’s busiest sections every day, meaning 21,000 trucks only account for 5 percent of the total, their length and width would likely produce a “noticeable difference”, the study states. 

This plan would also eliminate the disastrous environmental impacts of this highway. 

A 2021 investigation by The Pointer found 29 species at risk along the corridor of the highway. A 2022 report published by Environmental Defence identified the same number.

In order to proceed with any work on the highway, necessary permits under the provincial Endangered Species Act and the federal Species at Risk Act would need to be granted. 

The issuance of the federal permits could prove to be the hurdle that is impossible for the provincial government to overcome, especially after the release of the federal recovery strategy for the Redside Dace, an endangered minnow, which came into effect at the end of July. The strategy’s release is the result of ongoing advocacy efforts from organizations like Ecojustice that have pushed for this plan to be finalized. It has been delayed for almost 15 years. 

The potential harm to species at risk was one of the three reasons the federal government stepped in to delay Highway 413 in 2021, considering it for designation under the Impact Assessment Act. Now, it forms a crucial part of the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the two levels of government which resulted in Highway 413 being removed from the Impact Assessment Act designation. 

The MOU is clear. The MTO needs to meet the requirements of any federal permits or authorizations, whether that is under the Fisheries Act, the Species at Risk Act, or other applicable laws, like the Migratory Birds Act.

This includes ensuring that “the activity will not jeopardize the survival or recovery of the species.”

The recently released recovery strategy for the Redside Dace makes an incredibly strong case that building Highway 413 will be next to impossible without pushing this fish closer to extinction—something now prohibited by law.

Primarily, the Canadian population of Redside Dace is found in streams that flow into the western regions of Lake Ontario. Over 80 percent of the Canadian population of this fish are found in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region. Calling these streams home has nearly been the undoing of this tiny fish. The loss of suitable habitat due to development across the GTHA has pushed the species close to extinction. It has already been extirpated from nine watersheds it previously called home, according to the recovery strategy. 

The habitat that is left is clearly struggling with harm from urban development as population numbers for the Redside Dace continue to plummet. 

Of the 26 watersheds identified in the recovery strategy, only 4 classify populations of the Redside Dace as fair; a further 12 are classified as poor; and one remains unknown (the remaining nine have had populations extirpated). 

This makes any remaining suitable habitat for this fish vitally important for conservation and recovery efforts. 

Three of these watersheds sit in the path of Highway 413, including the Credit River, Sixteen Mile Creek, and the Humber River watershed. The Humber River is one of the few where Redside Dace populations are classified as in fair condition. 

These remaining habitats are now considered Critical Habitat for the fish, meaning “habitat necessary for the survival or recovery of a listed wildlife species,” according to the Species at Risk Act.

The endangered Redside Dace.

(Environment Canada) 

According to a spokesperson from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO), a permit for work can only be granted when strict criteria are met by the provincial government or its contractors, including: 

• All reasonable alternatives that would reduce the impact have been considered and the “best solution” has been adopted.
• All feasible measures will be taken to minimize the impact on the species and its critical habitat.
• The activity will not jeopardize the survival or recovery of the species.

According to the recovery strategy for the Redside Dace, the small fish prefers streams and channels that are not “heavily influenced” by urban drainage. The Highway 413 would cause serious harm to the rivers and streams it will cross, disrupting water flow; stirring up sediment; and leaching pollutants and other dangerous chemicals to name a few. Any of these things has the potential to jeopardize the recovery of the Redside Dace.

Highway 413 will also cause significant harm to the headwaters of many of these watersheds the Redside Dace depends on for survival. The tiny fish has been pushed north by intense urban development, directly into the path of this proposed highway. 

“These populations directly depend on the functions of these headwater features in supplying suitable baseflow, organic litter for aquatic invertebrates, and coarse sediment for spawning habitat,” the recovery strategy states. “Accordingly, the protection of contributing headwater wetlands, groundwater seepage areas, and in-stream sediment supply areas is important to sustaining populations that remain nearby, and the protection of headwater systems should be given a high priority in freshwater conservation efforts.”

Even with any mitigation measures, which the PC government has been lax to apply or enforce, it will be impossible to reduce harm to the Redside Dace caused by the highway. 

Andrea Kirkwood, an associate professor at Ontario Tech University who holds a PhD in environmental microbiology, previously told The Pointer it is not possible to mitigate all of the harm these types of major infrastructure projects will trigger, especially in pristine areas like those that sit in the path of the 413.

“As we move towards the Greenbelt and the Oak Ridges Moraine, we're getting closer and closer to the actual headwaters,” Kirkwood said. “So absolutely we would expect there to be an impact…We have to be really mindful if we're going to be adding now another urban type of infrastructure to a system that's already stressed out. It could really tip the scales for these systems.”

The Redside Dace recovery strategy lists eight major threats to the species. Highway 413 represents six of them. 

1. Loss of habitat: At least 400 acres of Greenbelt would be lost and the massive highway would cut across more than 85 rivers and streams. This would occur in areas labelled as “critical habitat” for the species. 
2. Pollution: The introduction of the highway would lead to increased chemical runoff into the surrounding ecosystem from passing vehicles as well as heavy chloride pollution due to the liberal application of road salt that would coat the 59-kilometre route during the winter months. As one example, studies from the Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority show that in the Maskinonge River, a tributary of Lake Simcoe, chloride levels have escalated dramatically since 2014 when the Highway 404 extension was completed. Prior to 2014, only 12 percent of chloride tests in a given year exceeded the “chronic” chloride guideline, a level at which long-term exposure can be harmful to wildlife. Since 2014, 84 percent of tests completed in the Maskinonge have exceeded the chronic guideline level. Chloride levels in Peel Region, a large part of where Highway 413 will run, chloride levels are already at dangerous levels for wildlife. 
3. Natural System Modification: Driving a highway through more than 85 waterways will cause an unknown amount of harm to the ecosystem as the natural flow of these streams is disrupted. While this harm can be mitigated by culverts and other means to allow streams to maintain their normal course, it can’t mitigate all of it. The stormwater runoff from this highway would impact the temperature of the surrounding waters due to the water sliding across the hot pavement and leeching away its warmth. This could be incredibly harmful to the Redside Dace which relies on cool water streams for survival. Runoff poses a “particular problem” for the Redside Dace, the recovery strategy states. Stream warming also coincides with loss of vegetation along the banks, which will also impact the Redside Dace. “Removal of riparian vegetation would directly affect the production of terrestrial insects required by Redside Dace during a large portion of the year,” the strategy states. “Riparian vegetation is also an important source of cover in the small streams inhabited by Redside Dace.”
4. Human Intrusion: The highway will be used by thousands of vehicles every day, which will inevitably lead to increased litter and illegal dumping, which can often be seen along the majority of major highways in Ontario. 
5. Climate Change: Modelling completed in 2021 estimated greenhouse gas emissions from construction and maintenance on the 413 would be as high as 113,260 tonnes, and the vehicles using the highway would spew 17 million tonnes of additional emissions by 2050. It unnecessary climate warming emissions that would exacerbate the consequences of climate change the GTA is already experiencing. This summer has seen two once-in-100-year storms hit the GTA causing widespread flooding and millions of dollars in damages.
6. Residential development: Arguably, Highway 413 is more of a development strategy than it is a transportation one. If completed, this highway would unlock hundreds of thousands of acres for commercial and residential development—much of it in the protected Greenbelt. The impacts of this have not been studied, but would lead to disastrous outcomes for all species at risk along the corridor, including the Redside Dace. 

Before the release and implementation of the recovery strategy, the PC government was attempting to limit the protections available for the Redside Dace. 

Widely accepted criteria for habitat consideration is whether that species has been spotted in that location over the last 20 years. A proposal from the Ford government wants to cut that number in half. They are also trying to limit areas for recovery to only those streams and watercourses adjacent to existing habitat, eliminating other formerly occupied areas, but due to population decline it is no longer home to the Redside Dace.

The status of this proposal remains unclear, but what is clear is the PC government will need to follow the requirements of the recovery strategy. 

The MOU signed with the federal government states Ontario will need to meet the requirements of the Species at Risk Act—which the Redside Dace is protected under. 

The SARA states: “No person shall damage or destroy the residence of one or more individuals of a wildlife species that is listed as an endangered species or a threatened species, or that is listed as an extirpated species if a recovery strategy has recommended the reintroduction of the species into the wild in Canada.”

“You can’t ever expect to hold onto species that are endangered if you just incrementally destroy the habitat that they are completely dependent on, of course they’re going to disappear,” Tim Gray, the Executive Director of Environmental Defence told The Pointer. ““The idea of taking those best remaining watersheds and putting a highway through it—and of course the highway is just a precursor for massive increase in sprawl development—clearly they are just of the view that if endangered species needs are in the way of their approach to development, which is sprawl and highways, then the species has to go extinct.”

Following the release of the recovery strategy, Environmental Defence is calling on the federal government to redesignate the Highway 413 project for a full impact assessment.

“Canada’s constitution explicitly gives the federal government jurisdiction regarding “inland” fish, so the recognition of waterways along the Highway 413’s impact area as redside dace Critical Habitat makes the case for a federal assessment designation unassailable,” reads a statement from Phil Pothen, Land Use and Land Development program manager for Environmental Defence. “Separately, recognition of these streams as Critical Habitat means that construction companies – and the provincial government itself – are prohibited from doing anything directly to them that would destroy any of their value as habitat for the species. That would require permission from the federal government. That means that it will be up to the federal government, which has presented itself as a defender of the environment, to decide whether the Highway 413 proposal can proceed.

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