Conservatives take 3 of 4 seats in Niagara; Liberals maintain grip on St. Catharines

Niagara’s federal political landscape has shifted. 

After an election night that saw the Liberals maintain a minority government with gains mostly at the expense of the New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois, the Conservative Party of Canada made a small inroad in Niagara Region, part of what, if results hold, might help prevent Mark Carney from forming a majority government. 

While three of Niagara’s four ridings remained status quo—Conservative incumbents Tony Baldinelli (Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake) and Dean Allison (Niagara West) secured reelection along with Liberal incumbent Chris Bittle in the St. Catharines riding—the only change came in the newly delineated riding of Niagara South where Liberal incumbent Vance Badawey was unseated by Conservative challenger and Port Colborne regional councillor Fred Davies. 

Despite spirited campaigns by New Democratic Party challengers, they ultimately failed to break through, overshadowed by the broader influence of American politics on the national stage that has triggered widespread worry about tariffs and the impact on local industries. That concern led many to vote strategically for one of the two main parties which they believed would be best suited to deal with the crisis and potential economic recession on the horizon.

The NDP, as a result, were the victims of what amounted to a two-party race, with Canadians closely divided between the Liberals and Conservatives. 

Here’s the breakdown from Niagara Region:

Niagara South

With 264 of 266 polls reporting, Elections Canada voting results show Davies completing the political upset over incumbent Badawey with 48.3 percent of the vote. The first election with new geographic boundaries for the riding, this could have played a part in Badawey’s defeat. The boundaries of the previous Niagara Centre riding included the southern portion of St. Catharines, where the Liberals and Bittle have maintained support since 2015. 

St. Catharines

In St. Catharines, Liberal incumbent Bittle retained his job, securing another term in office. Bittle's campaign emphasized ongoing infrastructure projects and climate change initiatives, which resonated with the electorate, while local support for the Liberal was also helped by Mark Carney’s focus on the U.S. administration and his repeated talk about Canada needing a steady, experienced hand to manage uncertain economic times. A lawyer by profession, Bittle has built a reputation as an advocate for climate action, affordable housing and support for the arts and cultural sectors. During his time in Parliament, he has served in roles such as Parliamentary secretary to the environment minister, helping shape national policy on sustainability and green infrastructure. He won the night with 51.9 percent of the vote. 

Niagara Falls–Niagara-on-the-Lake

Conservative incumbent Baldinelli will extend his tenure in the Niagara Falls–Niagara-on-the-Lake riding, a constituency known for its conservative leanings, maintaining the seat he first won in 2019. He secured 49.3 percent of the vote, ahead of Liberal challenger Andrea Kaiser’s 44.7 percent. A former manager at Niagara Parks, Baldinelli has focused his federal work on tourism, border issues and economic recovery — all vital concerns for a riding heavily reliant on cross-border travel and hospitality. In Parliament, he has served as the Conservative critic for tourism and has been an outspoken advocate for reducing barriers to trade and travel with the United States.

Niagara West

Dean Allison has once again secured re-election in Niagara West, extending a parliamentary career that began when he was first elected as a Conservative MP in 2004. Known for his low-profile approach, Allison has built a reputation as a reliable representative for his largely rural and suburban constituency. Over the years, he has focused on issues such as small business support, agriculture and fiscal responsibility, core concerns in a riding with strong Conservative roots. His continued success reflects both his personal popularity and the enduring Conservative dominance in Niagara West, one of the safest Tory seats in the region. He won with 52 percent of the vote, nearly 10 percent above the Liberal challenger. 

Despite the popularity of the NDP at the provincial level in the region, the federal election results in Niagara played out as a two-party race, with others failing to secure a significant share of the vote. The region mirrored national trends.

The Pointer's 2025 federal election coverage is partly supported by the Covering Canada: Election 2025 Fund.

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