NDP maintains stronghold in Niagara taking three of four ridings

Thursday’s vote changed nothing for Niagara’s representation as the Ontario NDP maintained the hold it has had on three of the region’s ridings since 2018.

The status quo in Niagara was more or less observed across the province. Doug Ford may have received the continued mandate he was seeking from Ontario voters but the unofficial results of the 44th provincial election show the PCs maintaining about the same number of seats they earned in 2022—80 compared to 83 in the last election. 

PC incumbent Sam Oosterhoff held on to the Niagara West riding while Jennie Stevens in St. Catharines; Wayne Gates in Niagara Falls; and Jeff Burch in Niagara Centre, were all reelected for the NDP.

The continued support for the NDP among Niagara voters stands in contrast to the decision by the mayors of the region’s three big cities to endorse Doug Ford for premier. The endorsement from mayors in St. Catharines, Niagara Falls and Welland appeared to have done very little to sway voters.

Last night’s results also show that election polling in Niagara continues to be off the mark. 

Going into Thursday’s election, the vote projection site Canada 338 was suggesting a PC sweep in Niagara. Niagara West was correctly considered a safe PC riding. St. Catharines and Niagara Centre were described as “leaning PC”. While the results in those ridings were close, they remained with the NDP. The Niagara Falls riding, which also includes Fort Erie and Niagara-on-the-Lake, was considered a toss up. In the end, the NDP incumbent Wayne Gates bested his PC rival, Ruth-Ann Nieuwesteeg by just shy of 11,000 votes.

Doug Ford clearly thought his fortunes in Niagara might change. He paid four visits to the Region during the campaign. Ford was in the Niagara Falls riding three times, including shortly after the election was called when he received the mayors’ endorsements. He popped into St. Catharines the day before election day, signalling that the PCs thought the riding was winnable.

Another prediction that turned out incorrect was that the rare winter election would impact voter turnout. Niagara saw melting snow and above freezing temperatures on election day, which may have contributed to voter turnout in Niagara being slightly above the 2022 election. Niagara Centre had the biggest increase (6 percent) in voter turnout, achieving 49.2 percent. St. Catharines and Niagara West had 50 percent or greater voter turnout. Across the province, voter turnout appears to have hit 45 percent, one percentage point above 2022.

Here’s a look at the results of Niagara’s four ridings.

Sam Oosterhoof, at 27-years-old, continues his stronghold in Niagara West. Oosterhoff, first elected in a by-election in the former Niagara West—Glanbrook riding when he was 19, had more votes than all of his opponents combined, exceeding the 50 percent mark for the second time in a regular election. Due to his experience, Oosterhoff was one of the rare PC candidates throughout the province who engaged in candidate debates and participated in interviews with local media during this campaign.

If there was a surprise in the Niagara West race, it was the second place showing of first time candidate Shauna Boyle (Liberal), who bested veteran local politician Dave Augustyn (NDP). The former 11-year mayor of Pelham saw his vote totals from the 2022 drop by approximately 1,300 votes, the last time he challenged Oosterhoff.

There was no breakthrough by the Green Party in Niagara but the Niagara West candidate, Mark Harrison, the owner of two Bulk Barn franchises in the region, fared the best. His 2,009 votes, which equated to 4.5 percent of the vote in the riding, exceeded the party’s other candidates in the Region. 

The St. Catharines riding saw a rematch of the 2022 election between NDP incumbent Jennie Stevens and PC candidate, and current Regional Councillor, Sal Sorrento. With the Liberal candidate, current City Councillor Robin McPherson running, there was the possibility that the progressive vote would split between the NDP and Liberal candidates, benefitting the PCs. 

While the initial returns were close, in the end, the results did not differ much from the 2022 election. Stevens ended up increasing her margin over Sorrento from a little over five percent to seven percent. 

The self-described “best moustache” at Queen’s Park, NDP incumbent Wayne Gates won his fifth election in the Niagara Falls riding, equaling the feat of Vince Kerrio Sr., who was the MPP from 1975 to 1990 and served as  Minister of Natural Resources and Minister of Energy in the Liberal government.

The PC candidate, current City Councillor Ruth-Ann Nieuwesteeg, was expected to offer a stern challenge but Gates continued his electoral success of winning the riding by 12 percentage points or more over his high-profile PC challengers in four successive elections. Last night’s victory was the strongest, with Gates winning by nearly 11,000 votes.

Wayne Gates at his victory party.

(Dean Iorfida/The Pointer)

In his victory speech, Gates referred to the “unnecessary and costly” snap election called by Ford, which Elections Ontario estimated would cost $189 million. He noted Ford’s three visits to the riding and how “they threw everything at us” alluding to the sometimes nasty tone on social media, including postings from the PC Party account.

Gates declined to comment further on any vitriol experienced during the campaign and did not feel that his fifth campaign was tougher than previous ones. 

“We ran the same election, we always run. I have the greatest team of volunteers. They are the most loyal campaign team,” Gates told The Pointer after his victory.

He said his number one priority will be healthcare, especially ensuring 24/7 operations at Fort Erie’s urgent care centre. Gates, on the campaign trail, also raised the possibility of a Ford government unilaterally amalgamating Niagara municipalities. In an earlier interview with The Pointer he expressed his view that any such amalgamations would be an effort by Ford to stifle dissenting views expressed by local politicians, especially in light of the support of the PCs by the three Niagara mayors.

Niagara Falls was the only riding to see a candidate not from the four main parties, break the top four with Gary Dumelie of the New Blue Party coming in fourth place, besting Green Party candidate, Celia Taylor.

Jeff Burch, the NDP incumbent, for the third straight time beat back the challenge of a PC candidate with strong name recognition in Niagara, proving that the strong NDP roots in the riding’s largest municipality, Welland, make the party difficult to beat in Niagara Centre. 

This time out Burch defeated current Port Colborne mayor Bill Steele. Despite Steele having a lead when the initial returns were counted, Burch ended up improving the NDP’s margin of victory. In the 2022 election, he bested current Regional Councillor and the PC candidate in the expected Federal election later this, Fred Davies by less than nine hundred votes. The victory this time was by over 2,000 votes.

Like other PC candidates, Steele eschewed candidate debates and local media interviews during the campaign, despite his more than 20 years of municipal experience. 

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