If extreme weather can’t shift Ontarians to a more sustainable mindset, what will?

Each morning, people across Ontario begin their morning with a long, hot shower. Then, they turn on the coffee maker and turn off the air conditioner. The toaster heats up a bagel or english muffin and the microwave gets oatmeal to its perfect temperature. 

Outside, manicured lawns are still wet from an early watering by automated sprinkler systems and cars wait on the driveway for the daily commute to work. 

When they return home, the television turns on, the air conditioner returns to life and the refrigerator is opened to prepare the early evening meal, before firing up the laptop to meet some last minute deadlines.

The dishwasher is loaded up and in the basement a hamper full of laundry is emptied into the washing machine, before being moved to the dryer. 

In bed, the bright glow of a cell phone lulls them to sleep as all the lights are turned off. Hours later they wake up and start all over again.

These sorts of energy intensive daily routines vary from person to person, household to household and country to country. But we know that Canadians are among the highest users of energy, needing 99,916 kWh per person, on average, last year to live our carbon intensive lifestyles, according to data from the Energy Institute. 

By comparison, per capita energy use in the Central African Republic was 286 kWh in 2023. In France it was 37,164, India used 7,586 kWh per person, Australia 63,257, Saudi Arabia 82,945, the U.S. 77,028 and Iceland had the highest energy use per capita last year, with its residents needing 167,422 kWh each, on average, in 2023, mostly to stay warm during its lengthy winter.

We are making progress, but the pace of reduction in per capita energy use does not bode well for Earth’s climate. Any further significant increase to global temperature will be catastrophic, with extreme heat and storm events dramatically altering our daily routines. 

In 2007, the worst year for sustainability, Canada’s per capita energy use was 119,159 kWh. But since 2020, it has barely gone down, from 100,866 kWh per person that year, a less than one percent reduction over four years. 

Other data suggests we have hit a wall when it comes to sustainability. Electric vehicle sales have slowed and experts point to a similar trend that is impacting other measurable aspects of our behaviour. 

While the average time it takes for a new car to be sold has increased significantly due to higher interest rates and recent high inflation impacting consumers, “it’s EVs that have slowed down by more than double,” Robert Karwel, a senior manager at J.D. Power’s Power Information Network, said in April. He explained that while price and performance were big concerns, the biggest factor is the lack of motivated buyers in the mass market, after “early adopters” have now mostly entered the EV space, having driven up sales dramatically over the last five years.

Now that it’s up to Canadians not as interested in purchasing an EV, approximately 80 percent of the market, the industry is trying to find ways to incentivize more typical Canadians to think green. For most of those described at the top of the piece, this is not an instinctive shift. The carbon intensive lifestyle many are used to, is simply too comfortable and too convenient. 

So, how can this be changed?

With EVs, the answer could simply be exposure. While the early horror stories of long lines at charging stations and struggles over long distances did not scare away early adopters, these growing pains—which have been mostly eliminated in major cities today—still act as a barrier for most of the population. But that can change simply by experiencing how easy the transition can be. 

Take for example a group of friends on an annual road trip. One member of the group has purchased a new EV which will be their main mode of transport. Aside from a few extra looks at the GPS to map out charging stations, and a pair of 15 minute breaks to charge (great time to grab a coffee, lunch or use the washroom), the day on the road remains virtually the same as years before. It could even be enough to convince the others that EV ownership is no different than the gas-powered car they have at home. 

Unless more people begin to change their minds in similar fashion when it comes to many sustainability measures available today, it may not be a matter of choice for long. Mother Nature has a way of forcing these decisions upon us—or making us pay the price. 

Earlier this month several regions in the province, including a large part of the Greater Toronto & Hamilton Area, were placed under a heat warning as the humidity made the summer air feel like it was above 40 degrees. 

Only halfway through 2024, the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), had already reported peak demand exceeded 2023 numbers at 23,852 megawatts (MW) on June 19. Reported temperatures that day, not factoring humidity, included highs of 32.8 in Toronto and 33.1 in Ottawa. 

The total electricity demand in Ontario for 2023 was recorded at 137.1 terawatt-hours (one terawatt generates enough energy to power 10 billion 100-watt light bulbs at a time, or 1 billion washing machines for 60 minutes) down 0.47 TWh from the year before, according to data from the IESO, the organization responsible for managing the electricity system and overseeing the operation of Ontario’s electrical grid. The province’s operator revealed weather had a significant impact on 2023 demand “as the winter and summer months were milder than normal.”

But while the overall energy use was steady, data found peak demand was “considerably higher” last year, with the highest amount of electricity use recorded on September 5 when the system saw a demand of 23,713 MW. The humidex that day hit 41 Celsius and the searing weather contributed to a demand that was 1,100 MW higher than the peak in 2022. 

“Ontario’s ability to import electricity was considerably affected because of hot, dry weather contributing to lower hydroelectric output as well as weeks-long wildfires in Quebec,” IESO reported in its latest annual review. 

Electricity demand was down slightly in Ontario in 2023, with nuclear accounting for a majority of the province’s output.

(IESO 2023 Overview)

Extreme weather events like heat waves, severe storms and hurricanes have a dramatic impact on how people use energy, Stephen Thomas, clean energy manager with the David Suzuki Foundation, tells The Pointer. 

Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as the recent flooding that submerged parts of the GTA, and heat waves that began in the spring. Sunday, July 21, was the hottest day on Earth ever recorded…until the record was broken the very next day.

Scientists around the globe point to sophisticated modelling that shows extreme heat will become more and more common in places previously untouched by the type of temperatures that directly impact daily routines, which will mean more dependency on energy systems. 

“People will need more access to cooling in order to stay healthy and comfortable in the summer months, and we are already seeing that in terms of increased air conditioning needs across Ontario and across Canada and indeed the world, as climate change heats up,” Thomas explains. “That's one of the main ways that our energy needs are going to change in the face of climate change.”

The most efficient way to stay cool sustainably is by using a high-efficiency electric heat pump powered by clean energy, Thomas says.  

Despite setbacks due to the PC government’s reliance on gas to increase capacity, Ontario’s electricity grid has become greener over the past two decades, with 53 percent of the province’s energy output from nuclear power and 25 percent from hydro. The cleanest alternatives, however, have stagnated under the PCs, accounting for just over 10 percent of output last year. That was actually less than the year before, as output from wind power decreased from 9.4 percent of the total in 2022 to 8.2 percent in 2023, after Doug Ford and his PC government had slashed alternative energy projects immediately following the 2018 election, and began to invest in more gas-generated electricity, making Ontario’s grid much dirtier. 

Oil and gas, meanwhile, went from 10.4 percent of total output in 2022, to 12.8 in 2023. 

As with other measures of our sustainability habits, the PC government is going backward.

The province’s main electricity operator is trying to change habits, and is doing critical work, but faces an uphill battle with many consumers, and the powerful PC majority government, which continues to fight the federal carbon tax, perhaps the most meaningful tool to change the behaviour of corporations, and individuals. 

Ontarians reduced their energy use in 2023 by more than 950 GWh (these savings are a preliminary estimate) — equivalent to powering a city the size of Barrie for one year — by implementing energy-efficient improvements through the IESO’s Save on Energy programs, which approximately 100,000 Ontarians participate in, according to the organization.  

Average daily electricity demand in Ontario fell considerably between 2002 and 2016, largely due to IESO’s energy-saving programs and improvements in energy efficiency, according to a 2018 snapshot from the Canada Energy Regulator. Light bulbs, which previously accounted for roughly 15 to 20 percent of global electricity consumption, now use up to 85 percent less energy due to LED and CFL technologies. Appliances such as refrigerators and freezers, which account for 14.1 percent of household energy use, have also become more energy efficient over the years.  

“We definitely still have a lot of work to do in Canada to upgrade our electricity grid in order to have it be more prepared for what climate change has in store for us, and to be more prepared for the increased use of things like low-cost wind and solar. But reliability is certainly one of the most important aspects of using electricity,” Thomas says. 

Even with increased demand for needs such as air conditioning, the overall energy that is required to heat and cool people’s homes and businesses can go down over time, he explains, “if it's done right.” This can be achieved by focusing on measures like building upgrades, retrofits and implementing heat pumps. Grid reliance has also improved because electricity is much more efficient than fossil fuels as an energy source, as long as the source is not a dirty one, such as coal, oil or gas.

“We want the electricity to be there when we flip the switch and when we need that energy most,” Thomas says. “The tools and the processes are certainly out there and are being used all across Canada and all across the developed world. But it's definitely going to have to be a focus in the face of climate change that we make sure our grid is reliable.”

The economic costs of climate change from extreme weather events such as flooding could force people to adapt to alternative solutions. The City of Mississauga and the Region of Peel have introduced programs to incentivize residents to mitigate flood damage inside their homes through subsidy programs. These initiatives help homeowners cover the costs of installing sump pumps and backwater valves to reduce basement flooding from heavy rains, as was seen last week when much of the GTA was consumed by rainfall that flooded roadways and homes. 

However, data from the City and Region show applications for these subsidy programs have declined over the last five years. Mississauga has received 412 applications for the program since 2019. That year it accepted 121, but last year only 80 applications were received. This year could mark a slight turning point as just over halfway through the year the City has received 84 applicants for the program.

Data from the Region and its Back Water Valve Rebate Program paint a bleak picture with only 53 applications received since 2020. Just ten of them were accepted in 2023, up from six in 2022. Meanwhile, estimates from last week’s flood event have predicted the economic cost to be as much as $4 billion — a financial burden for taxpayers that could be reduced if people took advantage of these initiatives. 

As is the case with declining EV sales recently, consistently high per capita energy usage and habits around household water consumption, the data that suggest a recent decline in mitigation measures to protect homes from flooding and prevent large amounts of rainfall from overwhelming municipal stormwater systems, all raises the same question: how can the majority of Canadians not personally motivated to act sustainably be incentivized to change?

Green warriors are not enough to transition our economy to a more sustainable, non-carbon future. It is up to industry leaders and politicians to figure out how to help the vast majority of Canadian consumers shift toward the future our planet so desperately needs.  

Clean energy manager with the David Suzuki Foundation Stephen Thomas says we need to be planning for climate events like increased frequency of hurricanes and winter storms.

(David Suzuki Foundation) 

It’s clear many across the country are concerned about our changing climate. A 2023 Leger poll reported 72 percent of Canadians are worried about climate change, with 74 percent associating extreme weather events with the changing climate. Polling data found 61 percent of Canadians have taken steps to adjust their daily habits due to climate anxiety and 68 percent said they intend to make changes in the near future. Forty percent said they would make some changes to their behaviours even if it comes with a cost. 

“Constructive worry about global warming may motivate an individual to take mitigating action or engage in behaviours that might have positive consequences for the environment (e.g., making sustainable domestic choices, purchasing an electric car or becoming an environmental activist),” a 2020 report from the Journal of Environmental Psychology explained. “While people undoubtedly know that the global warming crisis will not be solved overnight, constructively worrying individuals might have the confidence that one's own and one's community's actions will lead to favourable outcomes, albeit in the future.”

This is seen in examples across Canada with people’s ability to conserve energy when faced with an emergency.

Conservation orders have become increasingly common as communities across the country make efforts to preserve water after critical infrastructure collapses, testing residents’ resolve. Earlier this year, as Alberta began preparing for a possible drought, the City of Calgary asked residents to conserve water ahead of what was predicted to be a dry spell due to warmer than average temperatures, generating fear of increased pressure on the city’s water supply. 

That fear became a reality when the City of Calgary declared a state of emergency to combat the ongoing water crisis that had been amplified by a cataclysmic fracture in the City’s near five-decade-old main water feeder pipe. Residents were forced to curb water usage as concerns that the city could run out mounted. Residents were urged to take shorter showers, wash only full loads in their dishwashers and washing machines and turn off the tap while brushing their teeth or shaving. People were also asked to set up a rain barrel in their backyards and add mulch to their gardens to reduce evaporation.

The crisis was so dire, Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek warned, "If our water usage continues to trend up and our water supply can't keep up, the taps will run dry at some point.” 

In the days that followed the initial rupture, the city’s water consumption dropped from roughly 650 million litres on the day the pipe burst on June 5, down to 440 million litres by the weekend. Meanwhile, typical consumption for that time of year was 580 million litres. It suggests in the face of an emergency, residents were not afraid to make the sustainable choice. 

Residents in Merritt B.C. were also recently asked to stop all non-essential water use after there was a “major failure” in the city’s well, affecting the water distribution system. Its collapse came after the City announced water restrictions in April to conserve water ahead of wildfire season.  

As residents in other provinces are asked to limit their water consumption, in Ontario the average daily residential use of water per capita has been increasing over the last several years, with Statistics Canada reporting 187 litres of water consumed per person per day in 2021 (the most recent data), up from 172 litres in 2019 and 184 in 2017. Data for all of Canada followed a similar trend with data showing Canadians consumed an average of 223 litres per resident per day in 2021, up from 216 in 2019 and 221 in 2017. It’s a signal that things are moving in the wrong direction. 

Data from Statistics Canada show increases in recent years in the average daily water usage of Ontarians.

(Melissa Jeanty/Unsplash) 

“We are at a time where we need to be paying much more attention to the realities of the climate crisis than we are right now. Canada right now is not on track to meet its climate targets. It is not on track to contribute what it needs to avoid the worst impacts of climate change,” Thomas explained. 

“Even though there's a certain amount of climate impacts locked in, it still means that everything that we do matters to make sure that the climate crisis doesn't get even worse.”

Keith Brooks, program director with Environmental Defence, believes people are becoming more environmentally aware and increasingly interested in reducing their own impacts. But although people are concerned about climate change, “I don't think our system is prepared to handle what's in store for us, and I think the government has been asleep at the wheel, to be honest, on climate policy and on energy planning and on climate adaptation.”

While some people may be leaning towards more sustainable initiatives, Ontarians are still dealing with a government that has not prioritized these measures, Brooks states. Since coming into office in 2018, Premier Doug Ford and his PC government have dramatically reshaped Ontario’s environmental policy, demonstrating an unwillingness to consider different approaches. In his first year in office, Ford cancelled hundreds of renewable energy contracts, including hydroelectric, solar and wind farms that were mid-construction, citing they were “wasteful” contracts that “would have driven up electricity bills.” The PC government spent more than $230 million to scrap the projects, documents later revealed. That same year, the Province also nixed the Electric and Hydrogen Vehicle Incentive program, previously introduced by the Liberals, which would provide rebates to people purchasing an electric vehicle. 

“I don't think that this particular government has done what's necessary to increase clean supply of electricity [or] to increase the resilience of the grid,” Brooks said. 

A spokesperson from the IESO told The Pointer electricity demand in Ontario is projected to increase by at least 60 percent over the next 25 years. Transportation, they explained, is one of the biggest drivers of increased demand, with more than seven million electric vehicles projected to be on the road by 2050.

“Our population is also growing, and the province is targeting 1.5 million new homes by 2031,” the spokesperson said. “Other factors include expanded transit systems, electrification of large operations such as mining in the north, and consumer choice of alternative heating methods like heat pumps.” 

They added the province is “well positioned to meet the demand and IESO will continue to help meet future energy needs by securing new supply through procurements. To accommodate the forecasted growth, the organization is taking several actions, including signing a new capacity exchange agreement with Hydro Quebec to swap power during tighter-than-usual grid conditions; expanding energy efficiency programs; and making new commitments to re-contract existing hydro facilities. These steps, the spokesperson explained, have put the organization “in a position to maintain an affordable and reliable grid through the 2020s” and is now “focused on securing new generation” for the next decade and beyond to continue keeping pace with demand. 

“When it comes to our energy usage in the future, it certainly will be impacted by climate change. We need to be planning for things like increased events like a heat wave or a heat dome. We need to be planning for things like increased frequency and severity of hurricanes and winter storms,” Thomas told The Pointer. 

“That is going to be true no matter what we do tomorrow, but the choices we make and how fast we do things like eliminate the use of fossil fuels will dictate how bad it gets in the decades to come.”

Email: [email protected] 

Twitter: @mcpaigepeacock

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