Mark Carney’s climate balancing act: clean energy promises & fossil fuel realities
Amid the swirl of intensifying climate disasters, surging renewable potential and the mounting economic risks of inaction, a question looms: will Mark Carney’s legacy be that of a clean energy champion, or the leader who missed our last best chance?
Our shared home, Earth, has entered a new era: the Anthropocene, shaped not by natural forces, but by human influence on the atmosphere, the oceans, the land and the climate.
Since the Industrial Revolution, human activity has steadily warmed the planet. Each of the last four decades has been hotter than the one before it, leading us to 2024: the hottest year ever recorded, and an immediate reminder of the life-altering path we’re on.
In 2024, global temperatures reached about 1.52 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with human activity responsible for 1.36 degrees of this dramatic increase, driven largely by greenhouse gas emissions, the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report ominously underscores.
Take up of alternative energy around the world, at the current rate, could easily replace carbon-based sources within the next few decades.
The rest was due to natural factors like El Niño and unusually warm Atlantic waters.
Scientists warn that, given current emission trends, temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius may now occur every second year.
From here on, years like 2024 are not anomalies. They are the new normal.
“Efforts to address climate change have been a struggle between urgency and complacency,” prime minister Mark Carney wrote in his book Value(s): Building a Better World for All.
(McClelland & Stewart)
“Achieving net zero will require moving away from fossil fuels to renewables…the first priority to build a zero-carbon economy is to green the generation of electricity.”
Mark Carney has long championed environmental sustainability, recognizing it as not just an ethical imperative but an economic opportunity. In 2020, he called the green transition "the greatest commercial opportunity of our time”. By March 2021, he was emphasizing that Canada stood on the cusp of a "huge economic opportunity" as it transitioned to a sustainable economy with drastically reduced carbon emissions.
(Anushka Yadav/The Pointer)
Since the release of his book in 2021, Carney has moved into the centre of the political spotlight, and Canadians from coast to coast have clamoured for a renewed environmental legacy.
In a January 2025 interview with Jon Stewart, ahead of the federal election, he placed responsibility for reducing Canada’s emissions squarely on the oil industry’s shoulders, arguing the path to climate progress lies in cleaning up fossil fuels, not asking Canadians to change their everyday lives.
The oil and gas sector remains Canada’s largest source of climate-warming carbon pollution, according to the federal government. Between 2005 and 2023, emissions from the industry rose by 7 percent, even as most other sectors began reducing their climate impact.
The latest federal emissions inventory, released in March, shows an even steeper rise in oil sands emissions, up more than 140 percent over the same period.
At the final Liberal leadership campaign event in downtown Montreal ahead of the spring election, Carney pledged to champion sustainable growth and position Canada as a global “clean energy superpower in nuclear, hydro power, wind, hydrogen, battery storage and carbon capture.”
On March 9, he won the Liberal leadership election with 85.9 percent of the vote, becoming Canada’s 24th Prime Minister and succeeding Justin Trudeau, who left a mixed climate legacy, marked by controversial pipeline approvals.
In his first weeks in office, ahead of the election, Carney offered only broad statements about environmental policy, avoiding detailed plans.
Shortly after being sworn in on March 14, and facing restless voters ground down by years of hyper-inflation, one of his first directives was to eliminate the federal consumer carbon tax effective April 1, with April's carbon rebates going ahead as planned.
"This will make a difference to hard-pressed Canadians, but it is part of a much bigger set of measures that this government is taking to ensure that we fight against climate change, that our companies are competitive and the country moves forward," Carney said.
The consumer carbon price was responsible for reducing annual greenhouse gas emissions by 8 to 14 megatonnes, according to a Canadian Climate Institute report. Scrapping it means forfeiting one of the most simple tools to reduce the carbon footprint of Canadians.
Many reluctantly welcomed the news, considering the relatively small impact compared to the consequences of a Conservative move to scrap the carbon price entirely, including the industrial tax which is responsible for the vast majority of emissions reductions, which Carbon Brief analysis shows would result in nearly 800 million additional tonnes of emissions over the next decade.
This extra pollution could cause approximately $233 billion in global climate damages based on estimates by the federal government.
The Canadian Climate Institute’s Climate Costs Tracker reveals the staggering financial toll of climate-fueled disasters across Canada, illustrating how wildfires, floods, droughts, and storms are becoming both more frequent and more expensive. In the past 12 months alone, damages in some provinces have reached into the billions with Alberta reporting over $4 billion, and other regions like Manitoba and Ontario (over $3 million Mississauga and $1 billion in Toronto alone due to floods) seeing hundreds of millions in losses. Clusters of high-cost events are evident in Western Canada, particularly around British Columbia and Alberta, reflecting the intense fire activity and extreme weather that have plagued these provinces.
This is not an inevitable trajectory. A Canadian Climate Institute report shows every dollar invested in climate adaptation yields $13–$15 in benefits.
By pairing proactive resilience planning with robust emission reduction policies aligned with global targets, Canada can slash future disaster costs by up to 75 percent, steering the country toward a more secure and affordable future.
Instead, by late March, Carney floated the idea of stepping back from hard emissions caps on the oil and gas sector, which were already filled with loopholes, opting instead for collaboration with provinces and industry on “specific ways to get those reductions,” rather than imposing “preset caps or preset restrictions on preset timelines.”
He also emphasized boosting energy sector competitiveness, stating, “It’s about getting, yes, pipelines built across this country so that we can displace imports of foreign oil.”
In June, after a meeting with premiers in Saskatoon, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford, Carney publicly referenced “decarbonized oil” in the context of new bitumen pipelines, suggesting that lower-emissions oil could still have a place in Canada’s future energy mix.
Such notions are controversial, pushed by an industry that spends millions on public relations to spin the idea of “cleaner” oil; Alberta’s tar sands production remains among the dirtiest, most polluting in the world, despite attempts to rationalize the consequences.
At the closing news conference, Carney listed “national interest” projects likely to be prioritized by first ministers, including the troubled Pathways Alliance carbon capture and storage hub and a proposed oil pipeline to Canada’s northwest coast.
“Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is a small part of decarbonization, but building more fossil fuel infrastructure expecting CCS to offset emissions is a fairy tale,” Citizens' Climate Lobby Canada director Cathy Orlando told The Pointer.
As of 2023, Canada operated seven CCS projects primarily in the oil and gas sector, capturing only 0.5 percent of the country’s total emissions, mostly used for enhanced oil recovery, and this excludes Scope 3 emissions, which are indirect greenhouse gas emissions generated throughout a company’s value chain, from fossil fuel combustion, which CCS cannot mitigate.
A 2023 report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) argues CCS is not a viable solution for achieving net-zero emissions in Canada’s oil and gas sector since it is “expensive, energy intensive, unproven at scale, and has no impact on the 80 percent of oil and gas emissions that result from downstream use.”
CCS doesn't align with the urgency or scale needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and often ends up supporting additional oil and gas production rather than curbing it.
Indigenous Clean Energy’s executive director, James Jenkins, told The Pointer he can’t speak directly to Carney’s intentions but believes the prime minister is “trying to balance many political voices across the country.”
Adam Scott, the executive director of Shift, a Toronto-based group that monitors pensions for climate risk, criticized Mark Carney's support for "decarbonized oil", arguing it's scientifically flawed. Oil is inherently carbon-intensive, and technologies like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can capture some emissions, they don't address the majority of oil’s carbon footprint, which comes from its end use as fuel. CCS is still nascent and energy-intensive, making it insufficient to curb oil's climate impact.
(Adam Scott/LinkedIn)
He cautions against overemphasizing fossil-based solutions at the expense of the clean energy transition.
“The concern is when petrocarbon efforts are highlighted and the programs that have put us on the right path begin to be rolled back. Clean technologies still need planning, infrastructure, and community capacity to succeed. If the focus shifts too far toward fossil-based mega-projects, it can really undermine progress,” he explained.
“It’s important to keep clean energy at the centre of the conversation and recognize the success of federal funds over the past decade, and how to expand that momentum.”
By his fifth month in office, Carney had held meetings with 25 oil and gas lobbyists, according to data tracked by Environmental Defence.
On July 11, the federal government announced a $16 million investment in energy projects across the Maritime provinces, promising affordable and reliable clean energy for Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick.
Tucked in the details was more funding for carbon capture, a move critics say props up the oil and gas industry under the guise of climate action. They argue that carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an expensive, unreliable solution with a poor track record, and that funds would be better spent on proven, cost-effective alternatives like wind, solar, and hydro, especially when paired with battery storage.
Carney seemed to agree back in 2021, when, serving as the UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance since 2019, he wrote in Value(s) that “greening energy sources is within reach,” with technologies like solar, wind, and hydro becoming “increasingly cost-effective.”
That’s even more true today.
Two recent UN reports, drawing on data from the International Renewable Energy Agency, confirm that the global shift to renewables has passed a “positive tipping point” with $2 trillion invested in clean energy last year, $800 billion more than in fossil fuels.
The world’s three most affordable sources of electricity in the past year were onshore wind, solar panels, and new hydropower.
Solar is now 41 percent cheaper and wind 53 percent cheaper than the lowest-cost fossil fuel.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres declared that the world has “passed the point of no return” in the shift to renewable energy, urging governments to submit bold new climate plans ahead of November’s COP30 summit in Brazil.
Between 2023 and 2024, global energy demand grew by 11.9 exajoules, with renewables supplying just 23 percent of that increase while fossil fuels led the rest, causing carbon emissions to rise by one percent to a record 40.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. Despite falling clean-tech costs and rapid innovation offering hope, renewables are still struggling to keep pace with growing energy demand.
(Statistical review of world energy/Energy Institute)
Guterres stressed that a clean energy future “is no longer a promise, it is a fact,” adding that no government, industry, or special interest can halt its progress.
“Of course, the fossil fuel lobby will try, and we know the lengths to which they will go. But, I have never been more confident that they will fail because we have passed the point of no return,” he said.
In 2023, global energy consumption reached 580 exajoules (EJ), of which 29.97 EJ or 5.2 percent came from renewable sources. By 2024, clean energy gained a little more ground, climbing to 32.74 EJ or 5.5 percent, data from the Statistical Review of World Energy shows.
Hydropower remains the largest source of renewable electricity globally, delivering about 16 EJ in 2024, even though there are concerns that hydropower plants and their associated reservoirs can negatively impact river ecosystems, affecting fish migration, water quality, and sediment flow.
Hydropower works by using flowing or falling water to spin turbines connected to generators, converting the water’s kinetic energy into electricity.
In Canada, hydroelectricity continues to meet more than ten percent of overall energy demand, producing 343.2 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2024.
But fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy mix, accounting for the majority, with oil at thirty-six percent, natural gas at thirty-two percent, and coal contributing less than five percent.
In 2024, Canada generated 343.2 terawatt hours (TWh) of hydroelectricity. This marked a 5.1 percent drop from 2023’s output of 360.7 TWh and continued a gradual long-term decline, averaging -1.1 percent per year over the past decade (2014–2024). Despite this recent dip, Canada remains the largest producer of hydroelectricity in North America by a wide margin, contributing more than half of the continent’s total hydro output in 2024.
(Statistical Review of World Energy/Energy Institute)
Canada’s wind, solar and energy-storage sectors have also grown by 46 percent in the last five years, with a new installed capacity of more than 24 gigawatt (GW) at the end of 2024, a recent report by Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA) highlights.
Between 2019 and 2024, Canada’s total installed capacity for wind, solar, and energy storage grew tremendously, and includes nearly 5 gigawatt (GW) of new wind capacity, now totaling more than 18 GW, 2 GW of new utility-scale solar and 600 MW of new on-site solar, bringing total solar capacity to over 5 GW, and 200 MW of new energy storage, increasing storage capacity by 192 percent to 330 MW. Over the same period, solar energy capacity (both utility-scale and on-site) nearly doubled, growing by 92 percent, and wind capacity increased by 35 percent.
(CanREA)
“Canada’s wind, solar and energy storage industry grew impressively over the past five years—and we expect to see significantly more growth in the next five years,” CanREA’s President and CEO Vittoria Bellissimo said in a statement.
“But this is not nearly enough. Canada has massive, untapped wind and solar resources that can and should be harnessed to provide the affordable, clean, scalable electricity needed in all jurisdictions.”
Over the past decade, Indigenous communities have led or co-led more than 600 energy projects, now accounting for approximately 20 percent of Canada’s electricity generation infrastructure.
Jenkins, who is from Walpole Island First Nation in southwestern Ontario, played a key role in developing community-led wind projects while working in band administration from 2013 to 2016. During that time, Walpole Island partnered with Samsung and Pattern Energy on wind farms through Ontario’s renewable procurement program, which included incentives for Indigenous equity participation.
“We formed partnerships on two major wind farms; North Kent Wind in Chatham-Kent and Borer’s River Wind in Lakeshore. We also partnered on Grand Bend Wind with Northland Power, where Walpole Island and Aamjiwnaang First Nation each own 25 percent,” he recalled.
Completed in 2018, the 100 MW North Kent Wind facility in Chatham-Kent features 34 Siemens Gamesa turbines and generates enough clean energy to power about 35,000 Ontario homes annually. The project faced criticism from nearby well water users, who claim turbine vibrations disturbed black shale, affecting water quality, a claim the developers dispute. Despite the concerns, the wind farm brought economic benefits, including 175 local construction jobs, 10 permanent positions, and over $40 million in projected local economic impact over 20 years. Both Chatham-Kent and the Bkejwanong (Walpole Island) First Nation each hold a 15 percent equity stake in the project.
These large-scale projects required extensive engagement but now generate annual dividends for the community that support health, economic development, and social programs.
“It really opened up opportunities for the community to make economic decisions on its own terms. A big success, in my view,” Jenkins said.
He believes Canada is well-positioned geographically with strong wind energy in the Great Lakes and the Rocky Mountain front range, steady wind in the Maritimes, and solar power that's competitive across the country. Battery storage is improving quickly, with both lithium and flow battery technology becoming more accessible.
Canadian solar power generation in 2016 was nearly 30 times higher than in 2010. It’s expected to nearly triple again by 2040.
Cities in Saskatchewan have the highest solar photovoltaic (PV) potential in Canada, followed by Manitoba, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec, according to Canada energy regulator. Over 98 percent of Canada’s solar power generation capacity is currently located in Ontario.
What makes Canada well-suited for wind and solar energy development? Its vast landmass, diverse climates, and high-quality renewable resources across multiple regions. Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan rank among the sunniest places in the country, with cities like Regina and Edmonton receiving more sunlight annually than global solar leaders such as Sydney and Rio de Janeiro. Even in areas with lower solar irradiance, high electricity prices, such as in the Northwest Territories, make solar a financially viable option. Cold weather, often seen as a barrier, actually improves solar panel efficiency by reducing electrical resistance.
“In the North, it’s more challenging but there are success stories,” Jenkins said. One example is the Kwanlin Dün First Nation, which now supplies wind energy to Whitehorse. Closer to home, the Six Nations of the Grand River are leading the Oneida Energy Storage project, a 1,000 megawatt battery facility designed to help stabilize Ontario’s power grid.
He explained that the federal government has played a key role in supporting Indigenous clean energy projects, particularly in their early, high-risk stages. Grant programs from NRCan, Indigenous Services Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and others have been essential.
“Because energy is a provincial jurisdiction, the federal role often comes through these types of funding. It’s important they maintain and expand these programs,” he noted.
Renewable energy also makes strong economic sense, particularly in light of recent trade tensions, including U.S. President Donald Trump imposing 35 percent trade tariffs on Canada.
The UN reports highlight how continued reliance on fossil fuels contributes to rising living costs through volatile prices, inflationary pressure on commodities, costly subsidies, and the increasing financial burden of climate-related disasters.
UN Secretary‑General António Guterres warned of the geopolitical dangers tied to fossil fuel dependence, calling it “the greatest threat to energy security today” and pointing to the price shocks that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“There are no price spikes for sunlight, no embargoes on wind. Renewables mean real energy security, real energy sovereignty and real freedom from fossil-fuel volatility,” Guterres said.
Even without considering today’s unusually high oil and gas prices, renewables offer significant cost savings in both the short and long term, for governments and consumers alike.
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the global deployment of renewable energy since 2000 has saved approximately USD 409 billion in fossil fuel costs for the electricity sector by 2023, with the greatest savings seen in Asia, followed by Europe and South America. Unlike fossil fuel imports, which involve ongoing costs, importing renewable technologies is typically a one-time investment. At 2024 prices, importing 1 GW of solar panels can yield savings equal to 30 years of gas import costs over the panels’ average 30-year lifespan.
(UN/Energy transition report)
Asia and Europe, which have seen the greatest fossil fuel cost savings globally from renewables, have emerged as global leaders in clean energy deployment thanks to targeted policies, investment incentives, and strong climate commitments.
China and India, in particular, have rapidly scaled up solar and wind capacity. China’s manufacturing dominance has also helped lower the global cost of solar panels.
“China is paradoxical. No country on the planet has the scale of manufacturing like China, for wind turbines, solar panels, you name it. They produce at scale. A lot of it used to be exported, but now the focus is on reducing and capping emissions aggressively,” Lorne Cousins, program director of the China Sustainability Leaders Council at The Conference Board and a Canadian who has lived in China for over 25 years, told The Pointer.
In 2024, China broke its own renewable energy records, installing 80 GW of wind capacity and 277 GW of solar, according to China’s National Energy Administration. That’s an 18 percent increase in wind (totalling 520 GW) and a 45 percent jump in solar (now 890 GW). Combined, China has already met President Xi Jinping’s 2030 target of 1.2 terawatts (TW) of renewable energy, six years early.
One of the world’s largest solar installations, the 4 gigawatt (GW) Ruoqiang photovoltaic project in China’s Taklamakan Desert, was connected to the grid in late 2024. Operated by China Green Electricity Investment, the project supports China’s national strategy to peak carbon emissions by the end of the decade.
(chinadaily.com.cn)
The International Energy Agency (IEA) points to China’s pace as a key reason why the global goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030 remains feasible. Despite building new coal plants, China's overall power generation rose by nearly 15 percent in 2024, reaching 3.35 terawatt-hour (TWh).
But Cousins warns: “The grid is a major challenge. It’s outdated and fragmented. Provinces don’t collaborate well. It’s not a monolith. There’s territoriality and competition, so the grid struggles to handle the load from renewables.”
“Some of the original wind and solar sites allocated 15–20 years ago aren’t optimal anymore. Climate and weather patterns have shifted. So, China is now building coal plants next to those renewable plants to support the load…but they’ve also introduced policies under the umbrella of eco-civilization and beautiful China. It’s not just about energy; it’s reforestation, water conservation, restoration. It’s very ambitious.”
Modernizing the grid has now become a strategic priority, and he believes China will get it done.
Jenkins noted that Canada faces similar structural issues.
“Most (grids) were designed for centralized fossil fuel generation. Renewables, especially solar and wind, are intermittent, so battery storage is key. But these grids were built decades ago and need rethinking,” he said.
In 2023, Alberta paused new renewable energy approvals due to concerns about grid reliability. The sudden decision, announced in the summer, had an immediate impact; 53 projects, potentially worth billions of dollars, were withdrawn almost overnight.
Clean Air Partnership executive director Gabriella Kalapos, this is partly because the need for storage undermines the business case for renewables. She likened it to the simplicity of fossil fuel systems, where energy can be ramped up or down as needed.
“There is a strong preference in the provincial government, at least in Ontario, for this simpler approach, ramping up fossil fuels when needed, and not using them when not. The hard work of planning an electricity system reliant on renewables and managing them across provinces, along with factoring in storage, is avoided,” Kalapos told The Pointer.
In Germany, the interconnected grid ensures that when wind or sun is unavailable in one region, other parts of the country can compensate. Kalapos acknowledges that storage is only one challenge.
Europe is making impressive strides in renewable energy, with Germany standing out as a prime example of success. In 2023, the country reached a historic milestone, with over 50 percent of its electricity generated from renewable sources, a Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE report notes. Particularly notable was the near 60 percent share of renewables in Germany's electricity generation, with wind power contributing 32 percent and solar installations continuing to expand rapidly. The country added 17 GW of renewable capacity in 2023, bringing its total to nearly 170 GW, largely driven by a surge in solar and wind energy, German Federal Network Agency, Bundesnetzagentur, notes. Solar energy saw substantial growth, with over 1 million new installations, and the country is on track to meet its 2030 target of 215 GW. As a continent, Europe is on track to reduce emissions by 54 percent by 2030 and 90 percent by 2040.
(Graph: Energy Institute, Photo: Wiki)
But the storage challenge is just one piece of the puzzle; Ontario's approach to renewable energy costs faces a key flaw.
On August 28, 2024, the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) launched its largest-ever competitive energy procurement to expand renewable capacity.
Kalapos points out a significant issue with IESO's cost calculations: by including storage costs in the analysis, they inflate the price of wind and solar power. She argues yes, these renewables are intermittent, but the need for backup power shouldn't be used to drive up their costs. Wind and solar remain far more cost-effective than fossil fuels, but the added complexity of storage distorts their true affordability, undermining their potential as cheaper energy sources.
Another major hurdle, despite wind’s cost-effectiveness and falling solar prices, fossil fuel industry lobbying continues to hinder progress.
"The provincial government has taken away land use and growth management decisions from municipalities and given them energy planning authority instead. This shift allows local opposition to flourish, particularly to wind energy, driven by misinformation from fossil fuel interests," she added.
“If we invested in our electricity system instead of continuing to subsidize the fossil fuel industry, we’d meet our climate targets without any problem. Yet, we’re still putting money into fossil fuel subsidies that we’ve said for years we’d phase out.”
Jenkins agrees, adding that without federal leadership in redesigning grids and promoting smart grid technology, utilities may keep opting for fossil-based solutions.
“Without leadership from the federal government on redesigning grids or encouraging smart grid tech, utilities may continue choosing fossil-based options simply because the system isn’t built to support clean tech,” he said.
“Renewables already make economic sense, but scaling them up means solving these structural issues.”
In July, over 100 groups, led by the David Suzuki Foundation, called on Carney and the federal government to prioritize the expansion of Canada’s east-west electricity grid with renewable energy, ensuring workers' and Indigenous rights are protected.
In the same month, just days after the federal government passed the controversial Bill C-5, known as the One Canadian Economy Act, which faced criticism from both environmental advocates and Indigenous communities, Carney, while flipping pancakes at the Calgary Stampede, remarked, “I would think, given the scale of the economic opportunity, the resources we have, the expertise we have, that it is highly, highly likely that we will have an oil pipeline that is a proposal for one of these projects of national interest.”
Kalapos argues that instead of pushing for a national pipeline, the focus should shift to investing in a national electricity grid.
Carney’s decisions in the coming months will be closely watched, especially in light of the International Court of Justice’s landmark ruling that climate inaction is not only reckless but illegal; for the first time, the world’s highest court has affirmed that states are legally obligated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including those from fossil fuel production, or risk breaching international law with potential consequences.
Cathy Orlando of Citizens' Climate Lobby Canada says she is looking forward to this fall's federal budget and hopes it will provide a clearer roadmap for Canada's renewable energy future, offering Canadians a better understanding of the legacy Carney will leave behind.
“Right now, Canadians have the chance to give input on what they want in the budget, and Citizens Climate Lobby Canada will be highlighting that solar and wind are much cheaper and will reduce energy costs. Our children will thank us because not only will energy costs go down, but climate damage costs will too,” Orlando said.
“Democracy is more than voting; we need to be curious about why we can’t solve the climate crisis. The real cause is a coordinated, sophisticated, well-funded fossil fuel machine backed by billionaires who want to keep the status quo. Once we wake up to that, this will end sooner, and we’ll have a cleaner, better world.”
The Pointer reached out to the Prime Minister’s office for comment but did not receive a response ahead of publication.
Email: [email protected]
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