Despite data that show they’re safe, residents of Oakville neighbourhood torn between facts and feeling

Late last year, Mario Zelaya never expected his TikTok post would stir such emotion across an upscale east-end Oakville neighbourhood. Nor did he anticipate being targeted by the town’s mayor.

It has been seven months since that initial post, when Zelaya detailed what he believes to be a serious public health threat linked to decades old industrial dump sites. One was used by the Ford Motor Company in the town of Oakville–in what is now known as the Joshua Creek neighbourhood–before it was closed in 1963 prior to the widescale residential development of the area. 

Provincial health data detailing rates of deaths due to cancer and per capita diagnosis of the disease show Joshua Creek has considerably lower risk compared to the rest of Oakville and Ontario.

As the anecdotal evidence Zelaya collected was amplified online, Mayor Rob Burton and Halton Region public health officials quickly responded to tamp down suggestions of an elevated cancer risk in the Joshua Creek neighbourhood in Oakville’s east end, just north of the QEW highway and Lake Ontario. Heavy industrial operations dominated the stretch of land above the waterfront for decades. It is now home to subdivisions. 

Ford did not respond to a request for comment from The Pointer. 

A “Rapid Assessment” of cancer rates in Joshua Creek was done by Halton Region and the report was published in November.

The Region’s rapid assessment, which used the most recent data provided by provincial health agencies, showed Joshua Creek's age-adjusted cancer incidence rate—427 cases per 100,000 people—is notably lower than both the regional rate of 490 and the provincial rate of 498. The report also highlighted that Joshua Creek's cancer mortality rate, at 105 deaths per 100,000, is substantially below the Region’s, 169, and the province’s, 184.

In 2014, it was announced by Ford that Oakville represented the company’s commitment to environmental safety, with the local assembly plant becoming Ford’s first North American facility to go “landfill-free”.

“Ford is very proud that all its Canadian manufacturing facilities are sending zero waste to landfill,” a press release that year announced. “We are expanding our manufacturing footprint in Oakville while decreasing our environmental footprint.”

Zelaya has tried to learn more about what took place in Oakville long before that.

The “9th Line Dump" was shut down in 1963. Located immediately south and west of what is now the 9th Line and Dundas Street (Highway 5) intersection, the site was initially a privately owned industrial waste facility before being acquired by the Town in 1952.  

A 2020 letter from Ontario’s environment ministry authored by Tina Dufresne, the district manager for Halton-Peel at the time, was addressed to a concerned resident and eventually published by Halton Region. It details the property’s history. According to the ministry, the closed “Ninth Line Landfill in Oakville is owned by the Town of Oakville and is managed by the Regional Municipality of Halton. This landfill received municipal waste as well as waste from the Ford Motor Company facility for approximately six years until its closure in 1963. I understand that you have concerns about the potential impacts that this site may have on groundwater and surface water within Joshua’s Creek.” 

The 2020 ministry letter addressed other sites of concern in the area. 

“The ministry has also followed up on your concerns about potential waste landfilling operations that you indicated took place at the Ford Motor Company property and on the Parkway green space property located on the northeast corner of Upper Middle Road East and Joshua’s Creek Drive.”

Ministry staff attended the Joshua Creek sites where many residents believe industrial dumping took place in the past.

“Ministry staff discussed the concerns with the property owners and gathered more information on the history of the sites… To determine if these sites are impacting the water quality of Joshua’s Creek, in July 2019, the ministry completed a surface water sampling program in which samples were taken upstream and downstream of the two sites. Surface water samples were analyzed for contaminants typically associated with landfilling activities, including ammonia, metals, phenols and volatile organic compounds. The results suggest that the two alleged landfilling sites had no detectable impacts on water quality in the creek. The ministry’s review of the available information does not indicate that waste was buried at those locations, or that the sites are impacting the water quality of Joshua’s Creek. Lastly, you raised concerns that the Parkway and the closed Ninth Line Landfill properties will be developed for commercial and residential use. The ministry is currently unaware of plans to develop this land. Development of the Ninth Line Landfill property would require extensive environmental work, submission and approval of a risk assessment and the filing of a Record of Site Condition with the Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks.”

Regarding the specific location of the closed 9th Line dump where industrial waste was disposed, Halton Region and the environment ministry have disclosed testing data over the years. 

The rugby practice facility right next to 9th Line, above the actual pitch just to the south and west, is where testing monitors have shown combustible gas concentrations.

(Google Satellite; WSP)

A third-party 2023 environmental engineering report done for Halton Region indicated that “combustible gas concentrations” were detected at two monitors right where a rugby practice field stands (the mowed area immediately along 9th Line just above and slightly to the east of the actual pitch shown in the map above).

Monitoring was done monthly in 2022 for the study. “Combustible gas concentrations were frequently detected at monitors 99-1 and 99-2 in 2022 (shown in the map above, where the practice rugby field sits),” the report by WSP detailed. “The measured combustible gas concentrations in 2022 ranged from 0% to 27% by volume in air at monitors 99-1 and 99-2. Combustible gas has historically been detected at monitors 99-1 and 99-2, although elevated liquid levels have reduced the frequency of detections at monitor 99-2.”

The report indicated that similar findings had been found previously. 

“Additionally, combustible gas concentrations of 0.2% by volume in air or lower were detected at gas monitors GP6, GP8R, GP9R, GP15R, GP106, GP107 and GP108 on at least one occasion in 2022. Historically, combustible gas has been infrequently detected at these locations. Monitoring will continue to confirm combustible gas detections. In general, the combustible gas readings in 2022 were comparable to the historical results. It is noted that monitors 99-1, 99-2, GP6, GP107 and GP108 are located within the refuse area and the presence of combustible gas at these locations is not unexpected.”

The environmental engineers indicated that at 27 percent, the upper level of methane gas detected was well above the upper explosive limit, but determined little risk to properties.

“It is expected that the principal combustible gas generated within a landfill is methane, which has a lower explosive limit of 5% gas by volume in air, and an upper explosive limit of 15% gas by volume in air. Based on the 2022 results, there was minimal hazard to structures on-site from combustible gases detected during the monitoring period.”    

For Zelaya, publicly available information does not go far or deep enough. 

Concerns around the existence of cancer-causing compounds, even with the provincial data that show cancer rates in Joshua Creek are low, have persisted for years, partly due to the lack of specific, in depth testing for these chemicals.

A 2018 report prepared for the Region notes that boreholes drilled at the site where the 9th Line dump was located confirmed the presence of refuse to a depth of nine metres. An earlier document from the environment ministry detailed that the site received approximately 12 truckloads per day of "wood, paper, paint, and sludge" from Ford. There have been numerous environmental management plans in place over the decades with the most recent created in 2018.

A review of available documents reveals that the environment ministry has been engaged with the Oakville waste sites since the mid-’80s. Records show the ministry acknowledges the 9th Line site was closed before the current environmental approval system was implemented and, as a result, has never received an Environmental Compliance Approval (ECA). The Ministry confirms the site contains municipal waste, along with paint and sludge from the Ford Motor Company. There is less known about the two other nearby sites of concern.

The ministry has stated Halton Region conducts surface water quality testing in Joshua Creek, near the closed Ninth Line site, every other year. In October 2020, the Region referenced its most recent monitoring report from 2019, which concluded that the landfill had no measurable adverse impact on the creek's water quality.

In a letter dated January 9 of this year, addressed to Zelaya, the Ministry disclosed that Infrastructure Ontario (IO) had commissioned detailed Environmental Site Assessments (ESAs) for the Ninth Line property in 2021 and 2022. These assessments, it stated, provided new information. In light of recent concerns raised by residents, the ministry has since contacted Infrastructure Ontario to undertake a review of the ESA findings to “determine if additional action is required in relation to the property.” The results of that review have yet to be released.

Regarding one of the other sites, located directly beside the automaker’s headquarters on Ford Drive, the ministry and Ford maintain they are unaware of any landfilling operations ever taking place on this property and that surface water sampling has shown no detectable impact on water quality.

But Zelaya’s post late last year sparked a torrent of online reaction, with dozens of anecdotal stories by past and present residents of the area, claiming exposure to nearby environmental toxins led to their cancer.

Since his first post last year, the former Oakville resident, entrepreneur and conservative social media commentator, has found himself at the centre of a growing controversy, facing accusations from Burton that he is running some kind of scam. He is waiting on delayed freedom of information documents that might shed more light on the legacy of Oakville’s industrial history. 

Zelaya was not expecting Burton to respond the way he did. After the Region released the cancer data, the mayor issued an unusually harsh statement, calling for a police investigation, alleging those behind the online effort were part of a real estate scheme intended to drive down property values. 

Burton provided no evidence, and documents obtained by The Pointer through a freedom of information request show the mayor went out of his way to override staff who put the public response together, adding his own allegations and calling for the police to investigate. 

When the newsletter crafted behind the scenes by Burton was published in response to mounting public concern, Zelaya was shocked. He was not involved in real estate development in Oakville, nor did he ever plan to be. 

He says his only motivation is the concern over the potential health implications of industrial waste in the area from previous dumping and broader environmental safety in parts of the suburb immediately west of Mississauga, where Ford has been building cars in Oakville since 1953. 

Similar concerns have mounted in cities and towns across Ontario where suburban and urban development has replaced industry; sometimes with unintended consequences. Residents in St. Catharines have been fighting for years to clean up an old General Motors site in the centre of their downtown which they believe is making them sick. The City of Oshawa dealt with numerous issues as it moved to replace a similar GM site in its downtown with a new courthouse and condos. 

In Oakville, Halton health officials moved quickly at the end of last year when the social media attention drew widespread concern. Municipal staff provided concrete evidence that may allay the fears of some community members. But despite data that show cancer mortality and incidence rates in the area are below the provincial average, and the rates for all of Oakville, for some these facts are not enough. 

Zelaya says when it comes to issues of public health there needs to be 100 percent certainty. The acknowledgement by experts that the study of cancer clusters is incredibly complex, combined with the emotionally impactful anecdotal evidence was enough to prompt residents who are demanding further study of their neighbourhood. While the data show there is a low risk, the potential for any risk at all is more than enough reason to look deeper, he says. 

“This is our community, our families live here and we have a right to have issues like this addressed in very open and fulsome ways, nothing should be left to doubt,” Zelaya says. 

As a former Oakville resident with growing visibility as a political commentator on TikTok, where he shares his views with more than 240,000 followers, Zelaya wasn’t surprised that he was contacted by a woman last year and asked to dig into the claims surrounding Joshua Creek. 

He makes it clear that he is no expert in public health, epidemiology or cancer-related issues. He describes himself as a concerned citizen using his platform to help people.

“I’m a guy that likes to fight for what’s right. I have the means, resources and capacity to hold the Town of Oakville accountable on important issues like this,” he said. 

When he was first contacted by a woman over social media, Zelaya was not sure what to do with the flood of information. 

"I talked to her over the phone, and she named dozens of people in her immediate neighborhood who had cancer or had died from it.”

He posted a 90-second video on his TikTok account. It quickly blew up. 

"The comments were shocking," he says. "So many people shared similar stories about family members who had lived in Joshua Creek and developed cancer."

The more than 1,700 comments ranged from expressions of sorrow, to skepticism, to firsthand accounts from individuals claiming that they live in the neighbourhood and have lost family members to cancer. Others came from users also claiming to be residents of the area, who described developing cancer themselves and attributing it to living in Joshua Creek.

Locations of old dump sites in the Joshua Creek area of Oakville as alleged by resident John Scheel. MECP was only able to verify that the Ninth Line site was ever used as a dump.

(Image John Scheel)

Anecdotal evidence can be powerful and convincing. But on their own, personal stories, no matter how emotionally stirring or factual, do not provide enough evidence to make the case some residents have brought forward. The existence of what epidemiologists call a cancer cluster has to be proven using extensive research and health care data. Current data from Statistics Canada show that about 2 in 5 Canadians, or between 40 and 45 percent, will develop cancer at some point in their lifetime; approximately a quarter of them will die from it. 

Zelaya wanted more information.

Galvanized by the overwhelming response from residents to his initial post, he launched a website and created a survey for residents with cancer concerns to share their stories. 

“All I’m trying to do with this website is actually help these people to get the ball rolling, so we can confirm what is happening, or confirm that it’s actually nothing and it’s maybe just coincidence,” he says. 

His initial research led him to information about old landfill sites that had once been visible in Oakville. 

The 43-year-old Zelaya has childhood memories of at least one dump in the area—now covered by grass—and after he brought it up with a friend, he started hearing more stories: descriptions of strange smells, of a “taste in your mouth” that would develop if you spent too much time in certain parts of Joshua Creek. Zelaya still had no idea what to think, but he expressed a hope that “Health Canada would get involved and conduct a thorough analysis.”

Enter John Scheel.

Scheel is a well known local advocate for transparency around Oakville's former dump sites. A longtime resident, he has made numerous delegations to Town Council specifically addressing the previous dumping in the Joshua Creek area. Since 2017, he has delivered multiple presentations urging comprehensive investigations into the potential health risks posed by these potentially contaminated sites. His advocacy extends beyond local government, including coordinated efforts to engage various provincial ministries.

“I am almost 82-years-old, retired, an ex-corporate turnaround executive with a Masters of Chemical Engineering and MBA,” he tells The Pointer.

When his daughter drew his attention to Zelaya’s TikTok posts he arranged to connect.

An avid nature enthusiast, Scheel first became aware of the toxic waste concerns in 2017, after frequenting the area along Joshua’s Creek while walking his dog.  His observations of the land and water retention system sparked a personal quest for answers, one that led to his growing curiosity about the area’s environmental history.

Scheel suggests the sites had faded from memory as the municipality developed around them, their histories buried by decades of population growth and collective amnesia.

Doing his own research, Scheel became concerned after public documents suggested three dump sites might have been used by Ford in the ‘70s and prior to then. While Scheel notes that these dumping practices were legal at the time and, to the best of his knowledge, complied with all applicable laws, he emphasizes that this does not eliminate the potential risks these sites may pose today.

In recent years, Ford officials and municipal staff have only officially acknowledged dumping at the closed 9th Line site. Records prior to the ‘90s are difficult to locate, Scheel says.

A Halton Region letter dated November 4, 2021 in response to an FOI request by Scheel, acknowledges the lack of information about dumping sites in Oakville. 

It indicates the 9th Line dump “operated approximately between 1930 through 1963 when it was closed and the Town of Oakville acquired it in 1952”... “The Old Trafalgar Dump, whose start date is unknown…appears to have opened in 1962” before it was closed when Highway 403 was constructed. The letter says the “new Ford Dump on Ford Drive and the South Service Road which was permitted by Ontario in 1963…was believed to have closed in the early 1970s.” 

Scheel has invested significant effort in bringing his findings to light, information he argues has been routinely overlooked by Oakville Council. Speaking to The Pointer, he criticized the lack of engagement or follow-up during public meetings, saying, “No one (council members) ever asks questions. The practice is that presentations are one-way.” 

For Zelaya, Scheel’s information was a revelation. Through his own research Zelaya learned similar sites in the U.S. had been subject to regulation and cleanup efforts. Why had Oakville’s been allowed to fade into obscurity without much public disclosure explaining how the lands were being managed? 

He dug deeper and unfolded the uphill battle Scheel had been fighting for years.

“This was the norm in the 1960s, there were no rules, there was no thought process for the environment,” Zelaya said in a November 5 Tiktok post. “But today there is and because we have those rules I believe we as citizens have the right to know if we’re living beside a toxic landfill site.”

Mario Zelaya (left) and John Scheel outside the Ford Motor plant in Oakville.

(Submitted)

Meanwhile, responses to his cancer survey continued pouring in—far more than he had anticipated. 

On November 7th, Mayor Rob Burton released a newsletter directly responding to the concerns being raised by Zelaya, assuring residents that health statistics showed lower cancer rates in Oakville, and even lower rates specifically in the Joshua Creek area, compared to the rest of Halton Region and Ontario. His newsletter also highlighted ongoing environmental monitoring and oversight. There was no doubt to Zelaya that the message was crafted in direct response to the social media dialogue he had ignited since his first post, less than two weeks before Burton’s public communication to residents. The Mayor’s newsletter describes “misinformation in online social media” with the mayor explicitly calling on the police to “investigate the identities and motives of the individual, or individuals, spreading the false claims.” 

“This smells like a scam to drive down real estate values for a big profit when the hysteria they generate dispels,” the mayor wrote in his newsletter. He provided no evidence to support his allegation. 

To Zelaya it was a shocking claim by the mayor in a public document widely circulated within the community.

“I was pissed. I’ll never forget. I’ll never forgive. I’m not the type of person that can be intimidated or scared. I’m just not wired that way. To me, it was just a disgusting display of an attempt by the highest office in Oakville to use the police to try to silence me.”

Documents obtained by The Pointer under freedom of information legislation reveal that Mayor Burton overrode staff and shaped the harsh language of the newsletter that was published. 

Staff suggested a headline for the newsletter: “Update on online cancer rate concerns in Joshua Creek”.

Burton told them to change it to: “Halton officials refute false cancer claims targeting Oakville area”.

After staff wrote at the top of the draft newsletter that “Monitoring confirms lower cancer mortality in the area”, Burton told them to “Make it: … Mayor Rob Burton is inviting police to investigate the identities and motives of the individual or individuals spreading the false claims. ‘This smells like a scam to drive down real estate values for a big profit when the hysteria they generate dispels,’ the mayor said.”  

Initially, staffers exchanged drafts that focused on reassuring residents, with no mention of potential scams or police involvement. In a flurry of no less than 24 emails between the mayor and staff on the afternoon of November 7th, Burton, behind the scenes, wrote much of what was published in the newsletter. 

Burton appeared to grow frustrated with communications staff he is not supposed to deal with directly, under the separation of powers between politicians and bureaucratic staff. Despite not having authority over them, he explicitly directed staff and wrote the wording he wanted in the newsletter, including his allegations of a scam and the need for the police to investigate. 

Emails obtained by The Pointer through the FOI investigation show Burton directed the smallest details of the newsletter, deciding which words should be bolded, where logos would be placed and what should be underlined. 

The Pointer reached out to Mayor Burton for comment. He did not respond.

Zelaya said he does not know whether Mayor Burton actually filed a police complaint against him. However, if a complaint was made, law enforcement has not contacted him to this day. Contacted last week by The Pointer, Halton Regional Police Services confirmed that “a complaint was not called in to the HRPS and there is no associated investigation.”   

The same day Burton had Oakville’s newsletter released in November, Halton Region also had a media release ready to go.

The FOI documents reveal Burton also played a role in the creation of the document released by the Region although the Region’s release does not make accusations of a scam or the need for police intervention. It refers to the 2023 Halton Region Cancer Report and seeks to reassure residents that due diligence will continue to be applied by the Region around any risk from these sites.

Halton Region informed The Pointer that its Public Health Epidemiological team, composed of four epidemiologists, collaborated with provincial partners to conduct a rapid assessment of cancer rates, and the results were made public in November, shortly after the social media concerns were first posted. The joint effort by the Region and provincial government was part of their response to community concerns regarding potential cancer clusters in the area. The Region stated a rapid response is the recommended approach to address community inquiries about cancer and involves a “rigorous”, team-based method to quickly evaluate specific data, including cancer incidence and mortality. When no concerning trends are revealed, no further assessment is recommended.

Zelaya says no municipal staff have reached out to him to discuss his concerns or the anecdotal evidence he has collected.

“They have my contact info, they know my name, they know who I am and they know where I live.  Not one person has asked to have a conversation and ‘educate’ me or discuss the things they say are wrong.”

Zelaya provided a copy of his survey, titled the “Joshua Creek Cancer Awareness Survey,” to The Pointer on the condition that all respondent identities remain confidential. 

The survey is a detailed document recording the dates and times of entries, names and addresses, contact information, and whether participants still reside in Joshua Creek. It also asks whether any family members were diagnosed with cancer while living in the area, the specific type of cancer, and if any diagnoses occurred after moving away.

“I wanted to get an idea of how many people were affected by cancer, or had family members who were…I needed a sanity check on the comments I received in my initial video, where so many people claimed to have family that lived there that got cancer.”

The results of the survey, Zelaya says, have strengthened his resolve to fight for full transparency. He acknowledges that the data collected is anecdotal. He says respondents had no incentive to misrepresent their experiences. He was surprised by the number of people, 120 in total, who took the time to complete the survey. He wonders if there might be more individuals with similar experiences who either never heard about the survey or chose not to get involved.

Zelaya says that of the eight FOI requests he has submitted, four with the Region and four with the Town of Oakville, after three months he has yet to receive a single document requested. 

He is simply trying to understand more about how cancer clusters can be identified.

It’s a difficult task. 

In 2022 the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) published the first study exploring existing practices for identifying clusters of noncommunicable diseases like cancer, by public health agencies and officials across Canada. The report highlights that procedures are inconsistent for investigating clusters in many jurisdictions and lack formal protocols and guidelines in others. It advocates for the establishment of “pan-national cancer cluster guidelines” that would enhance comparability between Canadian jurisdictions and lead to the adoption of “cluster response best practices”.

The report notes that in Ontario, cancer cluster investigations are typically handled by local public health units, with support from provincial agencies like Public Health Ontario when needed. While Ontario does not have a dedicated, standardized protocol specifically for cancer cluster investigations, it uses guidance from the U.S. and other jurisdictions. 

The Canadian government report acknowledges that communication and transparency remain challenges, and responses can vary based on available resources and perceived public concern.

A report done in the U.S. concluded that “extensive efforts to find causes of community cancer clusters have not been successful”, and noted “fundamental shortcomings to current methods of investigating cancer clusters.”

Lindsay Di Tamasso, Public Communication Manager for the Region, wrote in an email that, “Halton Region is committed to transparency and to providing the community with clear information on health and environmental standards. The Halton Region Cancer Report shows that overall cancer incidence and mortality rates in Halton are below Ontario averages. Halton Region Public Health findings confirm that cancer mortality in Joshua Creek is lower than in Halton and Ontario.” 

Zelaya and Scheel continue to dig for more detailed information and push for better accountability.

In correspondence shared with The Pointer, the environment ministry stated that “no off-site impacts from the landfills on groundwater have been noted,” and that it is “satisfied that the current monitoring program is sufficient to identify any potential impacts to the natural environment.” Responding specifically to Zelaya’s concern about the lack of soil testing, Dr. Rachel Fletcher, a director with the ministry, responded in part that, “Based on a review of the available information, ministry technical experts have identified that additional soil sampling is not necessary.”

Zelaya believes a trackdown study is warranted to determine if there is a cancer cluster associated with contamination in Joshua Creek. Such a study would trace individuals including those who have moved away and gather detailed demographic and exposure information to better understand potential risk factors. 

The Pointer will continue to report on concerns around previous dumping in Oakville and similar issues being raised across parts of Ontario.

Email: [email protected]

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