Conservatives use Grimsby home invasion as evidence of a national crime wave—the data doesn’t back it up

On April 15, a violent break-and-enter occurred in the community of Grimsby. According to the police report, just after 4 a.m., five masked men stormed a residence, armed and aggressive, searching for valuables before fleeing in a black SUV. Although the homeowner suffered only minor injuries, the emotional and psychological impact was a concern. The video of the break-in, captured on a porch camera, spread quickly across this small but growing town in the Niagara Region.

The crime itself was unsettling, but the speed and intensity with which political figures tried to capitalize on it were equally jarring.

Barely 24 hours after the home invasion, Conservative candidate for Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, Ned Kuruc, released a strongly worded statement, not just acknowledging the incident, but using it as a launchpad for a broader political message.

“Like many families across our region, I was shocked to hear the news of the violent home invasion in Grimsby yesterday,” Kuruc stated. “My heart goes out to the victims who have to deal with the trauma of the violence that they experienced."

What began as a message of empathy quickly pivoted into a familiar campaign script.

“It didn’t used to be like this. Families used to feel safe walking our streets and could go to bed without locking their doors."

Kuruc went on to blame federal Liberal policies for a so-called "wave of crime and chaos," citing alarming, though unverified in this context, statistics about rising violent crime, car theft, and gun-related incidents. He called out Prime Minister Mark Carney by name, attempting to invoke a soft on crime image.

“Only a new Conservative government will stop the crime, lock up dangerous criminals, and give repeat violent offenders jail, not bail,” Kuruc declared, aping statements practically verbatim that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been using on the campaign trail over the last month. “Only Conservatives will bring home safe streets for law-abiding Canadians–For a Change.”

While the Grimsby crime understandably sparked concern, Kuruc’s rapid response illustrates a broader trend: the politicization of isolated acts of violence to stir fear, discredit opponents and shift public attention from nuanced policy debates to gut-level emotion. Critics call it a populist tactic designed not just to inform, but in many cases it serves to misinform and alarm, leveraging fear as both a tool and a message.

“What is clear is that historically speaking, we live in one of the safest periods in history,” Michael Spratt, an Ottawa-based criminal defence lawyer, wrote recently in an opinion piece for Canadian Lawyer, criticizing Poilievre’s misleading crime narrative as “nonsense”. “Canada's Crime Severity Index, a measure of the seriousness of police-reported crime, has decreased by 6 percent in the last decade and a staggering 31 percent since 2000.”

The facts have not stopped Conservatives.

The Pointer reached out to Kuruc’s campaign for comment, but he did not respond.

On April 23, Poilievre stopped in Hamilton for a last minute campaign push. Joined by Kuruc at a media event, Poilievre announced a new Conservative government would ensure increased police powers as part of a multi-pronged approach he claims will end homelessness and encampments, with no explanation for how this would happen. While his announcement addressed many aspects of the homelessness crisis, he drew a carefully constructed picture of “dangerous tent cities” that rendered life unsafe for “law abiding Canadians” who live near them.

The politicization of criminal violence and the exploitation of human suffering have become recurring themes on the federal election campaign trail. The “tough on crime” agenda has been pushed by Poilievre and the Conservatives, emphasizing how, in their view, the Liberals “unleashed a wave of violent crime” in the country that has created “chaos in our streets”. 

The data tells a different story, particularly for violent crime.

Data show that between 2022 and 2023 property crime decreased for the second consecutive year while violent crime increased 2 percent, after decreasing 2.4 percent between 2021 and 2022.

(NRPS)

While Statistics Canada data shows violent crime incidents increased 48.9 percent in Canada between 2013 and 2023, that figure has an asterisk attached to it. As Statistics Canada notes, over the last 10 years, that figure has been “expanded” to capture a number of violations previously accounted for in different categories, including uttering threats, criminal harassment and forcible confinement. Poilievre has failed to mention that societal changes, like the MeToo movement, led to increased reporting of particular types of crime, like sexual assault (which increased 75 percent over the same period). The figure also reflects the increased capability of investigating new types of crime, such as online child sexual exploitation. Statistics Canada noted the rise in reported child pornography cases was the largest contributor to the overall Crime Severity Index last year, mainly a result of “increased public awareness about the topic and partnerships related to combating and investigating child sexual exploitation and abuse on the Internet.”

The use of such language as a “crime wave” simply does not fit the reality in Niagara Region. 

Statistics Canada data show the Crime Severity Index in Niagara has remained static over the last five years, and has decreased in recent years. 

Niagara Region’s Crime Severity Index has been on a declining trend since 2018.

(Niagara Region)

“In relation to safety, Niagara typically ranks similar to or lower than other comparable municipalities when it comes to the volume and severity level of police-reported crime across our GTHA counterparts (measured through the Crime Severity Index),” the Region’s Community Safety and Wellbeing Plan 2021-2025 states. “In particular, Niagara has much lower levels of violent crime than most other regions across Ontario and across Canada.”

The region has experienced small annual increases in violent crime in recent years, but it still remains below the national average, and the trend does not look like a wave. 

Niagara Police have recorded slight increases in violent crime annually since 2016.

(Niagara Region)

According to Niagara Region, the COVID-19 pandemic is a key contributor to the slight increases seen since 2020.

“Due to COVID-19, 2020 was an unprecedented year where most businesses were closed and people stayed home. This situation, unfortunately, resulted in an increase in assaults causing bodily harm, robbery, and domestic violence, which has had an impact on the violent crime severity index for this period,” the Niagara Region website explains. 

The Pointer's 2025 federal election coverage is partly supported by the Covering Canada: Election 2025 Fund.

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