Peel’s immigrant population underpins the economy & the region’s future; they want answers from leaders about their plans for newcomers

Every client Rattandeep Singh sits down with represents the identity Canada has carved out on the world stage—the post-colonial success story where pluralism represents the promise of a truly global brand of nationalism. 

Recently, the journey toward that uniquely Canadian promise has morphed into fear and confusion as people no longer come to him on their path to that once attainable dream. Now, they wonder how long it might be before they are forced to go back to where they came from. 

“I think the number of inquiries have gone down more than 50 percent,” the Brampton based immigration lawyer tells The Pointer. “Our revenues have also dropped. The first two, three months were okay, but now there is a dull moment in our business, and I can easily see that there is a decline. When I speak to my colleagues they also have a similar story.”

Through his work with Visa Insights Immigration Services Inc. Singh has represented mostly international students in recent years, who apply for permanent residency as the conditions of their temporary student visa near their expiration.

It’s part of what used to be a common immigrant timeline through the process that moved newcomers closer to eventual citizenship—to the life they imagined for years. 

In parts of countries like India, the red and white Maple Leaf flag is displayed prominently on the windows of immigration agencies, the jewel of destinations, the land that, more than any other country in the world, holds the hope of a life people romanticize from a young age. 

Billboards and signs across the Indian state of Punjab, where the vast majority of Brampton’s immigration has come from over the past two decades, promote the Canadian dream to young people. 

(Facebook)

For many international students or others working their way to citizenship, once they become permanent residents they often apply to sponsor their spouse to join them in Canada.

A sudden policy change by the federal government that took effect last year has resulted in a dramatic drop in the number of newcomers Canada will accommodate over the next few years.

Singh is already seeing the impacts on his business.  

“Of late, I've seen seven or eight of my clients already who have gone back to India, in this particular case, as the country of origin; and they have gone thinking that they would never come back. It's a very recent trend.”

In October, the federal government under former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership introduced changes to the 2025-2027 immigration levels plan in an effort to “pause population growth” in the short term to ease pressure on the housing market, infrastructure and public services. The new targets reduced the number of permanent residency permits from a planned 500,000 to 395,000 this year, with a further reduction to 365,000 by 2027. 

Cuts were also made to the number of temporary residents allowed in the country through other common immigration pathways, including the number of temporary foreign workers and international students. Permits for spouses and dependents of students and workers were also scaled back. As a result of the reduced thresholds and more restrictive eligibility criteria, it is now expected that Canada’s non-permanent resident population will decline by more than 800,000 over the next two years, according to data from the Government of Canada. 

It was ultimately an admission that the federal government’s immigration system had unravelled. The Pointer previously reported how immigration had exceeded levels the Liberals had set with more than a million newcomers arriving in the country each of the last two years — 40 to 50 percent more than established targets. 

“While it’s clear our economy needs newcomers, we see the pressures facing our country, and we must adapt our policies accordingly,” former immigration minister Marc Miller said in October. His comments built on statements by Trudeau during a press conference that acknowledged changes needed to be made “to stabilize" Canada’s immigration system, noting “We didn’t get the balance quite right.”

It remains to be seen what unintended consequences these reductions might have in Peel.

As a major settlement destination for newcomers to Canada, Peel is an immigrant-majority population, where people born outside the country make up more than half of Peel’s population (51.3 percent), according to the 2021 Census. About 70 percent of the region’s residents identify as a visible minority and non-permanent residents (primarily international students) made up 4.7 percent of Peel's population, up from 1.7 percent in 2016 (approximately 80,000 people). Between 2016 and 2021 alone, 104,125 people migrated to Peel, making up 14 percent of the region’s total immigrant population. The Peel Newcomer Strategy Group reported that in 2021, the region received 39,620 permanent residents, about ten percent of the number for all of Canada, in a region that has about four percent of the country’s population.

Of the 52 percent of Peel’s residents who are immigrants, about half arrived under an economic category.

(Region of Peel 2021 Census) 

According to Peel’s 2023 Economic Pulse report, higher immigration “exerted positive influences on growth.” It was also expected that the inflow of immigrants would “enhance long-term growth prospects.” With an economy reliant on newcomers, reducing future numbers could put strain on the region’s economic and social ecosystems. 

The changes to international student numbers have already been detrimental to post-secondary institutions. Schools like Algoma University in Brampton became heavily reliant on international students, with enrolment skyrocketing approximately 900 percent in three years at the city’s downtown campus, as the exploitation of international students led to the eventual scaling back of numbers by Ottawa. As a 2022 report from Ontario's Auditor General revealed, Algoma had become "overburdened by debt” and the University began admitting masses of international students to its Brampton campus, charging four times the fees compared to Canadian students, to turn around the university’s troubling finances. 

Ottawa cracked down on dozens of colleges and universities such as Algoma that had abused the system. In 2023, 543,978 international student permits were authorized or confirmed (233,272 from India alone). This year, the total number of international students slated to arrive is 305,900, the same target for 2026 and 2027, a 44 percent reduction each year, compared to 2023 levels.

With the drastic change in government policy post-secondary institutions that had exploited international students are now scrambling to address huge revenue losses.

The Council of Ontario Universities revealed in October that as a result of federal changes, Ontario universities are projecting financial losses of more than $300 million in 2024-25, compared to 2023, doubling to more than $600 million in 2026 — marking a nearly $1 billion loss of revenue in the first two years of the new plan. The loss in revenue has led to layoffs, hiring freezes and service reductions inside Canadian colleges and universities, including across Peel, where Sheridan College has campuses in Brampton and Mississauga. It was forced to suspend 40 educational programs, put another 27 under review and layoff staff, projecting a 30 percent decline in enrollment and a $112 million drop in revenue this year due to the loss of international students. 

In response to the financial hit, the Council’s president and CEO Steve Orsini said, “this has resulted in significant collateral damage to universities, which will have untold implications for years to come. It is critical that measures to reduce overall international student numbers target institutions that have seen irresponsible and unsustainable growth in recent years.”

Singh is witnessing the fallout. 

“I've seen so many restaurants open in the last few years just because Peel has witnessed a very high growth of international students. With the changes to international students, numbers have dropped down very drastically… so definitely, those restaurants or other associated businesses, I think everybody could see an impact.”  

Gurpreet Malhotra, CEO of Indus Community Services which offers settlement support to newcomers, told The Pointer, “each [immigration pathway] has different pressures and causes that puts difficulty on an incredibly multicultural and supportive area such as Peel.”

“Governments have a right to tinker with the immigration system numbers and pull levers as they need to in order to fit labour market and availability. But whenever they make any kind of rule change, they have to take into account those who are caught in the change,” he said. “Fifty-two percent of Peel was born outside of Canada, which means we are much more impacted because we have such a large pressure for family reunification [and] attractiveness to newcomers who would feel more comfortable being part of the family, part of a system, part of an employment plan.” 

The leaders of each major federal party have committed to scaling back immigration to pre-pandemic levels and capping international student permits. None have provided detailed targets over the next three years for each immigration category (permanent resident through economic programs, permanent resident through sponsorship/reunification, refugee/asylum claimant, temporary worker and temporary student). The Pointer requested these details but none of the parties provided any information, and none have released a detailed immigration plan with targets for each category.

Mark Carney and the Liberals have rebranded immigration as a mechanism to spark economic growth. To get Canada “back on track” the Liberal leader has proposed curtailing immigration “until it can be returned to a sustainable trend.” This includes reducing the total number of temporary workers and international students to less than five percent of Canada’s population by the end of 2027, from a previous high of 7.3 percent, “to ease the strain on housing, public infrastructure, and our social services.”

“We need to have a cap on all types of immigration for a certain amount of time so that we can increase our capacity to welcome newcomers to Canada, including in housing, training and language training and make sure that the social safety net can accept them,” he said during the French language leaders debate last week. Carney said a Liberal government “will maintain the cap on immigration for certainly a number of years so we can increase our ability to welcome newcomers.”

Mark Carney's Liberals are proposing to cap Canada’s immigration numbers to less than five percent of Canada’s population by the end of 2027 to reduce the strain on housing and other services.

(X/Mark Carney) 

The Liberal platform has promised to stabilize permanent resident admissions at less than one percent of Canada’s population annually beyond 2027 “with a focus on attracting top global talent that will drive economic growth and prosperity.” The Party’s immigration strategy plans to continue to allow reunification of families while also prioritizing refugees. It also focuses on revitalizing the Global Skills Strategy to provide support to high-growth Canadian businesses and entrepreneurs and improving pathways from temporary to permanent residency through programs like Express Entry and the Provincial Nominee Program.

Using Trudeau’s immigration policy, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has repeatedly criticized the Liberals for damaging Canada’s immigration system, claiming the current structure “is broken.”

“We have to get back to normal levels of immigration, get rid of the fraud in the temporary immigration system and ensure the people that come here arrive in numbers that we can house, employ and care for,” the Conservative leader said during last week’s English debate. “That is how it always was and that is how we are going to restore it.” 

While he has been quick to condemn the Liberals’ handling of immigration, Poilievre has not committed to specific targets. He has said a Conservative government would temporarily slash immigration, citing housing shortages and infrastructure capacity, though it is unclear what that would look like. He is instead focused on prioritizing skilled workers, faster credential recognition and stronger system enforcement, arguing that immigration targets must match the country’s ability to absorb newcomers.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has maintained immigration should be based on the country’s economic needs and supports increasing permanent residency with a focus on equity and fairness. This includes protections for undocumented residents, ending exploitation in temporary foreign worker programs, expanding refugee admissions, and accelerating family visa application timelines.

“In general, we should do our part. It’s a question of humanity and compassion,” he said during last week’s debate. “We appreciate the fact that our country is founded on immigration, that is something important to us. We want immigration levels that are in line with our needs. Yes we need to take in people, but if we cannot accept people, well, we don't want them to live a bad life here in Canada.”

Singh said the NDP would base immigration levels on findings from an expert panel that would study Canada’s capacity to bring in newcomers. 

“We need a facts based, needs based approach,” he said. 

In an effort to curb the rapid rate of Canada’s growing population, the federal government reduced its previously forecasted immigration levels for the next two years.

(Daniel Neuhaus/Unsplash) 

Admitting during a debate last week that immigration in Canada has gotten out of control, Carney said, “yes, the system isn’t working, especially after the pandemic. Our population has gone up at about three percent per year because of immigration and that’s why we need to have a cap for a certain period of time.”

Rattandeep Singh said while Canada needs newcomers, the new government must establish more clearly defined criteria for the type of immigrants, international students or work permit holders who are coming into the country.

“Some immigration consultants also believe that the government has allowed too many international students and we do not have the required infrastructure jobs and both parties are not happy. The government is also not happy. The residents are also not happy. Even the students are also not happy, because they are now continuously asking their parents back home for money, or they are living a life that is the level below what they are accustomed to because they are not able to get the right jobs.”

“So if nobody is happy then for the time being, I think reducing the numbers makes sense so that things settle down for some time and the economy gets back in shape. It's a supply and demand game.”

Echoing Singh, Malhotra says he is not too worried about the reduction in numbers and their impact on Peel. Acknowledging that Canada’s immigration numbers increased at a dramatic rate, he said, “scaling back doesn't feel unreasonable, especially if the economy is going through a difficult time.

“Then even if you didn't scale back, you would then be inviting people into a situation where things are too difficult for them, and so that's hardly useful either. When you're looking at the overall newcomers arriving, you want them to be able to succeed, and having a reduced number may feel like a good policy option at this stage.”

Immigration is often fueled by different sets of circumstances, whether that’s looking for a new economic future or reuniting with family, but people are also forcibly displaced because of volatile conditions in their own country. 

Peel, which is home to Pearson International Airport, has welcomed unprecedented numbers of displaced individuals in recent years. Municipal leaders have called on Ottawa for support to deal with the influx of asylum seekers. 

As Canada received a record 144,035 asylum claimants in 2023, more than 1.5 times the previous record set in 2022, Peel’s poorly managed emergency shelter system was exposed and local supports were not prepared to handle the influx of refugees from war torn countries. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, at the end of June 2023, an estimated 110 million people had been forcibly displaced from their homes due to persecution, conflict, violence and human rights violations. The surge was felt in Peel, where regional staff were reporting an exponential rise in asylum claimants seeking shelter support. 

At its peak, the Region was reporting its shelters had reached 400 percent capacity in February 2024, with asylum claimants accounting for 72 percent of occupants in Peel’s emergency shelter systems. The reality of how ill prepared the Region was to handle the numbers reached a tragic point that same month, when Peel reported the death of a Kenyan woman waiting outside Mississauga’s Dundas Shelter for a space to open up inside. It was the second death of an asylum claimant outside the shelter in four months, exposing the dangerous mismanagement and failure of Peel’s municipal councillors, who for years had ignored a growing problem that was about to explode. 

As staff ramped up the Region’s response, thanks to federal funding that helped establish a welcome centre dedicated to supporting and housing newcomers, a February staff report revealed Peel was serving 400 asylum claimant households as of February 3, down significantly from 1,034 households in September.  

Recent numbers from the Canada Border Services Agency reported over 1,400 border crossings in Quebec during the first two weeks of April alone as people seek refuge from the United States.

(Hermes Rivera/Unsplash) 

While Peel has managed to get its asylum claimant response under control, border officials are warning of potential increases to individuals seeking asylum in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s new immigration policies, which have threatened mass deportation. After the Trump administration’s revocation measures, the Canada Border Services Agency logged 1,356 asylum claimant entries at a border crossing in Quebec during the month of March, nearly double the 755 entries recorded in February. The latest reports from the border agency have shown 1,411 border crossings as of April 13 (an average of 108 individuals/asylum claims a day). If the trend continues, the border crossing is on track to reach 3,240 claims by the end of the month.

To ensure future immigration policies are supported with the infrastructure required at the municipal level to accommodate any surges of asylum seekers, Malhotra said there has to be a clear understanding of the number of people that come to Peel.

“Is there a fair match between resources and asylum seekers? And so far, it appears that those two numbers are not well correlated. If we're taking a larger proportion than another place that doesn't have an international airport, then it stands to reason that we should have the additional resources to do that so we do not put an unfair strain on the property tax base, which, after all, is not designed to help with federal matters of immigration.”

The Liberals have pledged to support legal aid for asylum seekers and refugees so that claimants receive timely advice and representation and have their cases resolved sooner. The Party’s response will also focus on “a credible and fair immigration system that removes failed claimants once due process has been accorded, reinforcing the system’s integrity.” The Conservatives and NDP have not released detailed plans for how they would manage asylum claimants, but Poilievre has said a government under his leadership could reduce processing times by “getting rid of the bogus claimants.”

“Obviously if someone is a true refugee who is truly in danger abroad and they come in under the proper rules then they should be allowed to stay but if they are a fraudster they will have to go,” he said during a visit in Edmonton earlier this month. 

In its priorities ahead of the federal vote on April 28, the Region of Peel has requested that the next government ensure “sustainable” federal support for asylum claimants. Peel’s latest Interim Housing Assistance Program application totals $121.5 million for 2025-2027, which includes $37 million for the Peel Reception Centre operating and facility cost, $20.4 million for temporary accommodations, and $38.8 million for the capital costs to purchase and renovate a family site. It is unclear how the federal parties plan to work directly with Peel to support the municipality in the face of future surges of asylum seekers. Questions to local candidates were not answered.

Peel’s Metamorphosis Network has also launched a petition which calls on local candidates to pledge to address several issues unique to Peel. Among the asks is a request to “support funding for settlement agencies that is sufficient for the needs of the people brought into the region and who currently reside here, so newcomers have the tools to succeed in their work and contribute to our economy.” 

“If we don't have the resources to settle them when they first get here, we certainly are not setting anyone up for success. We must be fairly resourced so that we can make sure that there is not an impact on other services,” Malhotra said. “We can't just expect the municipalities and nonprofits and others to fill the gap without resources and expect that to be a fix.”

The Pointer's 2025 federal election coverage is partly supported by the Covering Canada: Election 2025 Fund. 

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Twitter: @mcpaigepeacock

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