The trade war’s impact on Niagara border crossings

“Beyond economics, it is obvious that this trade war is meant to sow division, to drive a wedge between allies and break apart long standing relationships. They mean to turn neighbours into strangers, friends into adversaries.”

These were the words of Niagara Regional Chair Jim Bradley at his annual State of the Region address last week, referring to the imposition of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump. 

For Niagara residents, especially those who live in municipalities along the Niagara River, Bradley’s words had resonance. Despite an international border and four bridges, the movement of residents between the two countries, known as “going over the river” in the local idiom, was a regular feature of life across Niagara and Western New York pre-2025: Canadians shopping, filling up with gas or going to sporting events; Americans visiting their cottages along Lake Erie, availing themselves of favourable currency rates and taking in the gaming offerings at Niagara’s casinos and bingo halls. 

The Niagara Falls border crossing.

(Youtube) 

Many locals have family on both sides of the border and it is not uncommon for marriages between residents of the Niagara Region and Western New York.

Fort Erie Mayor Wayne Redekop referred to the close connection between the border communities during a live March 21st press conference of the Border Mayors Alliance hosted by the Frontier Duty Free Association. He described the movement between the two countries as “quite remarkable”, alluding to pre-911 days when a passport to cross the bridges was optional. 

Redekop then spoke of the personal, familial and business relationships that had been forged between the Niagara Region and Western New York and how fundamental such movement was to the economies of both areas. “Anything that impedes the flow of people,” he argued, has an economic impact.

The economic connection between the two sides of the Niagara River is pronounced. Western New York’s Buffalo Niagara Partnership reports that trade between New York state and Canada is valued at $30 billion, with New York state exporting $19 billion of goods from Canada, 680,900 jobs in the state are dependent on trade with Canada and 1,084 Canadian-owned businesses employ nearly 79,000 New Yorkers.

Not surprisingly, the Buffalo-Niagara Partnership advocates for “free trade policies aimed at strengthening our bi-national economy and vital trade relationship with Canada.” 

While the border communities have struggled and survived 911 and the pandemic, the current trade war is the latest geo-political event that has impacted the economy and the travel between the countries.

A quiet Rainbow Bridge at 4:00 p.m. Friday, March 28, when traffic would usually be busy.

 (YouTube screen capture)

Traffic statistics from the two Niagara bridge authorities along the Niagara River show a trend, undoubtedly impacted by Trump’s imposition of tariffs and the growing patriotism amongst Canadians to keep their commercial activities local.

January bridge crossing statistics were actually improved from a year prior, showing the gradual increase of traffic post-pandemic; however, while traffic on the Niagara bridges tends to increase as the year progresses, the month of February showed a decline and though there was some improvement in traffic in March, the increase was nominal compared to other years when March traffic has surged.  

Auto traffic on the Queenston-Lewiston bridge increased in March 2024 by 29 percent compared to the month prio. This year, the increase in auto traffic from February to March was 3.5 percent, as of March 27th. In raw totals, auto traffic numbers in March, with four days to go in the month, were 65,059. February 2025 totals were 62,847, while January was, atypically, the busiest month of the year, so far, with 74,179 auto trips.  Auto traffic trips for March 2024 were at 97,541, meaning that auto trips across the Queenston-Lewiston are down approximately 40 percent from a year prior.

The statistical trends are similar for the more tourist-oriented Rainbow Bridge, where U.S. bound traffic that saw an increase of 31 percent between February and March 2024, will only see a nominal increase of approximately three percent this year. American bound traffic in March is currently at approximately 56,000 trips. Last year, the Rainbow Bridge saw 84,331 U.S. bound trips in March of 2024, a roughly 50 percent decrease compared to the same time last year.

The Whirlpool Bridge, which is primarily used by locals due to the requirement for a Nexus pass, had decreased totals in traffic in March 2025.

Niagara’s busiest border crossing is the Peace Bridge between Fort Erie and Buffalo. While March statistics are not currently available, the trend of a decrease in February from January is seen in the statistics. 

Truck and auto traffic to the U.S. in February on the Peace Bridge decreased to 135,610 trips from 154,741 in January. Trips to Canada showed a similar decrease, with February trips at 139,275, with January at 159,316. In February 2024, total trips on the Peace Bridge (both directions) were 307,653. The number of trips in February 2025 decreased to 274,885, an almost 11 percent drop.

With the Niagara border crossing numbers down, Chair Bradley, at his state of the union address, encouraged the Canadians in attendance to maintain strong ties and positive relationships with their U.S. neighbours.

“Uphold that Canadian stereotype of politeness by ensuring our everyday interactions with our U.S. neighbours are marked by civility, good will, and mutual respect.” 

Symbolically, attending the Chair’s address were Mayor Robert Restaino of Niagara Falls, New York, and Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz. The latter had taken to his Instagram account to note that “not since the War of 1812 has the relationship between the U.S. and Canada been as bad as it is today” and that “the unnecessary trade war” was especially hurting Western New York and Southern Ontario. 

Restaino and Poloncarz, along with Chair Bradley, Mayor Redekop and the Mayors of Niagara Falls (Jim Diodati), Niagara-on-the-Lake (Gary Zalepa), Buffalo (Christopher Scanlon) and Chair of the Niagara County Legislature (Rebecca Wydysh) have formed an advocacy group called Niagara 8.

In a communication released on March 24th, the local leaders spoke of how Western New York and the Niagara Region “are intrinsically linked and interdependent”, tied together by geography, the economy and culture. The group concluded that the tariffs were “unnecessary” and harmful to “both of our regions”. The Niagara 8 have vowed to “advocate for our region and show how government works best when it works together.” 

(Source: Elbows Up Canada website)

A more grassroots effort, to show that interconnectivity of residents on both sides of the Niagara River, has also come about.

Elbows Up for Canada is an effort of Buffalonians and other Western New Yorkers, “who are ready to work together to defend democracy.” The group stands in opposition “to the ginned-up tariffs and all takes of making Canada the 51st state.”

At 5:00 p.m. on April 2nd, the day that the majority of tariffs are scheduled to be implemented and that Trump has coined “Liberation Day”, a rally will take place at the Shoreline Trail Bridge, near the Peace Bridge, in Buffalo and the Mather Park in Fort Erie.

The organizers describe the rally as an opportunity to “stand with our Canadian neighbors in opposition to the tariffs and threats of "statehood", in solidarity with the True North, strong and free.” 

The Elbows Up for Canada website also goes into detail rebutting a number of President Trump’s pronouncements on tariffs, annexation and fentanyl.

As the website points out, “less than 1% of fentanyl and illegal crossings into the United States come from Canada.” 

A review of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) website illustrates further the paucity of fentanyl smuggling emanating from the Western New York crossings.

2022 was the most pronounced year, when 67 “drug seizure events” occurred. The 2002 seizures accounted for a total of 6 pounds of fentanyl. There were a mere four and two fentanyl seizures in 2023 and 2024, respectively, totalling less than a pound, each year. 

Another goal of Elbows Up Canada is to respond to the President’s rhetoric with the phrase “this is dangerous and foolish”, so that people “don’t get used to Donald Trump’s lies about Canada through his sheer rambling repetition of them.”

A goal for Mayor Wayne Redekop of Fort Erie, as he expressed at the Border Mayors Alliance press conference, is to “make sure that our American neighbours still feel welcomed to Canada” and that personal feelings as a result of the tariff war “do not impede the flow of people.”   

For directions to the Elbows Up For Canada! rally on April 2nd go here.

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