CANDIDATE TRACKER: Will the 2025 federal election bring change to Niagara?

The beginning of 2025 seems so long ago.  

When Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party and prime minister, the outlook for the Liberal members of Parliament who remained, looked bleak. 

Less than three months later, the threat of economically devastating tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, not to mention his musing of making Canada the 51st state, has led to a growing wave of Canadian patriotism that has changed the political calculus.   

Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, and a former executive at Goldman Sachs, but a novice politician, romped to a decisive Liberal leadership victory to become the prime minister, briefly. With surging momentum, Carney, as expected, visited Governor General Mary Simon asking that Parliament be dissolved, calling a snap election, and sending Canadians to the polls April 28.    

The issues for Niagara residents overlap with the rest of Canada – the cost of living, concerns regarding the impacts of the U.S. tariffs and national sovereignty. The Niagara area was identified as a municipal region susceptible to the tariffs in a recent report by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. Its vulnerability ranked 16th out of the 41 municipal areas in Canada with a population of 100,000 or more. Tourism, which a number of municipalities in the region depend on, may benefit from a low Canadian dollar but if a recession hits will Canadians be traveling and if relations between Canada and the U.S. become increasingly fraught, will Americans stay away? 

While Niagara’s four ridings might not “make or break” a party’s fortunes, in a close race with so much riding on slim margins, the local result could contribute to a narrow majority, or prevent one, with political trends acquiescing around the collective reaction to the unsettling threats from across the border. 

There have been parallels between the last three federal and provincial elections in Niagara. In each case, the region has seen a split with two seats won by the ruling party and two belonging to the opposition. At both levels, the elected members have remained static. Just a few months ago that trend was in jeopardy, with the Liberals trailing badly in the polls but the departure of Trudeau and the sharp rise of Carney has dramatically shifted the tea leaves, as Trump stirs a particular sense of national pride not felt for decades.    

Until this federal campaign, the riding boundaries have also remained the same at both levels of government. (Doug Ford chose not to have boundary changes proposed through the federal government’s 2023 redistribution process implemented for last month’s Provincial election). 

The redistribution will see major changes to two of Niagara’s ridings and minor tweaks to the other two that could have an impact on the April 28th result. 

Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake 

CPC: Tony Baldinelli (I) 

GR: Karen Fraser 

LIB: Andrea Kaiser 

NDP: ?

The riding, which over the last three federal elections consisted of the three municipalities that abut the Niagara River to the west, has been impacted by the redistribution process, reflecting shifts in Niagara’s population. 

The Town of Fort Erie is no longer part of the riding and the riding’s name has been changed to reflect the two remaining municipalities. 

Since Justin Trudeau's first victory, the riding has remained in the hands of the Conservatives. Longtime MP and Stephen Harper-era cabinet minister, Rob Nicholson, held the seat from 2004 to 2019, after representing the riding from 1984 to 1993. Prior to Nicholson’s 2015 victory, the Niagara Falls seat was considered a bellwether, held by the governing party since 1974.    

Upon Nicholson’s retirement from federal politics, one of his former legislative assistants, Tony Baldinelli, retained the seat for the PCs in the 2019 and 2021 elections. He has served as the deputy shadow transport minister, advisor to the leader on tourism recovery and as shadow manufacturing and export minister. 

For the third straight election he will be running against Andrea Kaiser, representing the Liberals. The daughter of Niagara pioneer winemaker, Karl J. Kaiser, she finished second to Baldinelli by 3 percent (2019) and 4.4 percent (2021) in the previous elections. After her 2021 defeat Kaiser was elected to Niagara Regional Council in 2022 representing Niagara-on-the-Lake. She has been the Vice Chair of the Planning and Economic Development committee. 

Kaiser may benefit from the elimination of Fort Erie from the riding. While Baldinelli topped the overall polls in Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake in the 2021 election, Kaiser had between 87 to 91 percent of his vote total in the two municipalities. In Fort Erie, however, she could only muster two-thirds of Baldinelli’s tally. 

While the Conservatives and Liberals have exceeded 20,000 votes in the elections since 2015, the NDP has consistently remained in third place with between 12,500 and 13,500 votes. As of press time the Party has not named a candidate for the riding. 

The Green Party will look to recover in this election. While the 2019 campaign saw all four of the Niagara Green candidates achieve more than 3,000 votes, in the last election the Green totals dropped to approximately 1,500.  

The Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake riding has the only Niagara Green Party candidate announced, so far.  

Karen Fraser has been actively involved with the Party since 2005; she ran three times provincially and was parachuted into Brampton South for the 2019 federal election. She was the longtime chair of the Arts & Culture committee in the City of Niagara Falls, and was named to the municipality’s Arts and Culture Wall of Fame. 

The NDP has not yet announced a candidate.   

Niagara South

CPC: Fred Davies 

GR: ?

LIB: Vance Badawey (I) 

NDP: Chantal McCollum  

Niagara South is the renamed Niagara Centre riding, which includes the cities of Welland, Port Colborne and Thorold. As of this election the riding will no longer include the southern portion of St. Catharines but will now include the Town of Fort Erie.  

The incumbent is Liberal Vance Badawey, who served two stints as Port Colborne’s mayor over 14 years. He was elected during the 2015 Liberal wave, when Trudeau and the Party built momentum through the 11-week campaign to win a majority government, partly a reaction to nine years under Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. Badawey has been remarkably consistent in the three federal elections he’s contested, achieving 35 percent of the vote each time against different high-profile local candidates.  

Badawey faces another known local politician this time around, with current Regional Councillor (Port Colborne) and two time school board trustee, Fred Davies, representing the Conservative Party of Canada.

The NDP is represented in Niagara South by Chantal McCollum, a first-time candidate and lawyer who resides in Welland. She touts growing up in a union family.

The Green Party has not yet named a candidate.

Niagara West

CPC: Dean Allison 

GR: ?

LIB: ?

NDP: ?

Niagara West consists of the towns of Grimsby, Lincoln and Pelham; the townships of Wainfleet and West Lincoln and a portion of St. Catharines, primarily west of Highway 406 and the Twelve Mile Creek. 

Possibly indicative of the snap nature of the election, as of press time, no candidates, other than incumbent Dean Allison of the Conservative Party have been announced for the riding. Another reason may be that Allison has proven unbeatable, holding the riding (or its predecessor Niagara West-Glanbrook) seven times since 2004. He achieved more than 50 percent of the vote in 2008 and 2011 and has retained the seat despite Liberal governments since 2015. 

St. Catharines

CPC: Bas Sluijmers  

GR: ?

LIB: Chris Bittle (I) 

NDP: Karen Orlandi  

Primarily consisting of Niagara’s largest municipality, the riding boundaries have been tweaked since the last election, with the municipality’s residents south of Glendale Avenue returning to the riding from Niagara Centre and some of the western section of the municipality being moved into the Niagara West riding. 

Similar to Vance Badawey, the incumbent in St. Catharines, Chris Bittle, was first elected federally in the 2015 Liberal wave. Unlike Badawey, Bittle, a local lawyer, was contesting his first run for political office. He beat controversial incumbent Rick Dykstra (CPC) by more than 3,000 votes. Bittle was subsequently reelected in 2019 and 2021 beating Conservative candidate Krystina Water on both occasions.   

In the 2021 election, some local Conservative support may have moved to the far-right leaning People’s Party of Canada (PPC), led by Maxine Bernier. PPC candidates came in fourth place in all four Niagara ridings in 2021, shifting Green candidates to fifth. 

The PPC has a full slate of candidates in this election: Dinah Althorpe (Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake), Peter Taras (Niagara South), Ryan Anderson (Niagara West) and Dennis Wilson (St. Catharines). 

Representing the Conservatives in St. Catharines is Bas Sluijmers, a Brock University graduate, founding board member of Safe Families Niagara and an International Key Account Manager at Big Country Pet Company in Niagara. 

The NDP candidate for the riding is Karen Orlandi, a minister with the Silver Spire United Church in Downtown St. Catharines. Orlandi, who is completing an M.A. in Social Justice, has regularly advocated on issues of homelessness, LGBTQ+ rights and overdose awareness. She appeared before St. Catharines City Council in September urging council members to continue to fund three outreach workers, through the Region’s Niagara Assertive Street Outreach program.

The Green Party has yet to name a candidate.  

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