UPDATED-Candidate Tracker: Will a snap Ontario election change the status quo in Niagara’s representation?

As expected, Doug Ford has triggered a provincial election, set for February 27th. In recent weeks, Ford has argued that he needs a mandate from the electorate to deal with the prospect of hefty tariffs imposed on Canadian exports to the United States, by President Donald Trump. Critics of Ontario’s 26th Premier have argued that the election call, more than a year ahead of when it is legally required, is an opportunistic effort by Ford to secure a third majority, while his Progressive Conservative (PC) party maintains support in the polls, and before any fallout occurs from the RCMP’s investigation into the government’s dealing with the Greenbelt.

The political landscape at the provincial level in Niagara has been static since Ford and the PCs were first elected to a majority government in June 2018. Despite forming the government, the PC’s have only had one seat in the region—the Niagara West riding held by Sam Oosteroff.  Niagara’s other three seats have been held by the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP). All of the incumbents are contesting the February election.

Here’s a look at Niagara’s four Provincial ridings, the candidates and possible issues on the campaign trail.

Niagara West

PC: Sam Oosterhoff (I)

LIB: Shauna Boyle

GR: Mark Harrison 

NDP: Dave Augustyn

The Niagara West riding is the Region’s largest in size, at 1,122 square kilometres, but the smallest in population, at 96,779, as per the 2021 census. The riding encompasses Grimsby, Lincoln, West Lincoln, Wainfleet, Pelham and a western part of St. Catharines. 

The riding seat has been held by Oosterhoff throughout the two terms of the Ford government. Oosterhoff was first elected in the former Niagara West—Glanbrook riding, when the seat became vacant with the resignation of Tim Hudak, former PC leader. Oosterhoff had upset the more established PC candidate, former MP Rick Dykstra, for the nomination and with his victory in the 2016 by-election, he became the youngest Ontario MPP elected at 19-years-old.

Oosterhoff has not been without controversy, participating in an anti-abortion rally and being opposed to same-sex marriage. During the pandemic, pictures circulated of him, in a large group at a Niagara restaurant, without masks or social distancing.

Oosterhoff will be challenged in the upcoming election by NDP candidate Dave Augustyn, who was the mayor of Pelham from 2007 to 2018. In 2022, Oosterhoff defeated Augustyn by capturing 18,800 votes and 45 percent of the ballots cast. Augustyn came in second with 8,658 votes. While Oosterhoff exceeded his two rivals by five percent of the vote, it was a drop off from his 2018 victory, where he received more than 24,000 votes and almost 53 percent of the ballots cast.

The Liberal candidate in next month’s election is Shauna Boyle. The news release announcing her nomination describes her as a “community leader and dedicated advocate”, who has been involved in the Liberal riding association and is a trauma survivor. Although Boyle has never held political office, she did run in Ward 3 in the 2014 municipal election in West Lincoln. Boyle is running on a campaign “to make life more affordable, guaranteeing access to family doctors, and strengthening the public education system.”

The Green party candidate in Niagara West is Wainfleet resident, Mark Harrison. The owner of two Bulk Barn franchises in the region, he is deeply concerned about the rising food prices at grocery stores and the fairness of compensation for local farmers. In addition, Harrison feels that “the region’s future should not be defined by unchecked development, but by a focus on its natural strengths: the incredible geography and ecosystems.”

As part of a spate of funding announcements by the Ford government in the lead up to the election call, Oosterhoff announced $3.97 million in funding to the Township of West Lincoln under the Housing Enabling Water Systems Fund. Later in the day, Oosterhoff was present in Grimsby when Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria announced that the Casablanca GO station was moving ahead.   

After the announcement, Augustyn took to his social media noting that NDP leader Marit Stiles had pledged to get the GO station built when she was in the riding three and a half weeks earlier. Augustyn pointed out that the station has long been promised, with an originally slated opening of 2021. He also was skeptical that the announcement was really promising much in that it was for a Request for Proposal to identify lands required for the station: “What? After seven years in office they (the government) haven’t even planned where this thing is going?” 

St. Catharines

PC: Sal Sorrento

LIB: Robin McPherson

GR: Stephen Vincelette-Smith

NDP: Jennie Stevens (I) 

The provincial riding of St. Catharines does not encompass the entire municipality of the same name, with a western portion of the city being a part of the West Niagara riding and the south part of the municipality falling within the riding of Niagara Centre.

Like the current race in West Niagara, the St. Catharines riding will see a rematch of the 2022 election between the incumbent Jennie Stevens (NDP), and the runner-up, Sal Sorrento (PC). In the previous election, Stevens secured her second term in office with 17,128 votes (39.7 percent of ballots cast) to Sorrento’s 14,851 votes (34.4 percent of ballots cast). 

Both candidates have been involved in local politics for many years. Stevens served as a St. Catharines city councillor for 15 years. She came in third the first time she ran for MPP in 2014, trailing the winner, current Regional Chair Jim Bradley, and current St. Catharines Mayor Mat Siscoe. Four years later, her and Bradley’s standing flipped, with her besting PC candidate Sandie Bellows by 1,600 votes for the seat.

Sorrento also has experience serving on St. Catharines City Council, representing the St. George’s ward for two terms. In the 2022 municipal election, he successfully ran for one of the six St. Catharines positions on Regional Council.

Stevens and Sorrento are joined in the race by current City Councillor, Robin McPherson (St. Patrick’s), who is running as the Liberal candidate. McPherson was appointed to St. Catharines Council at the beginning of 2022 after a vacancy, as she had been the runner-up in the ward in the 2018 municipal election. McPherson, the City’s first 2SLGBTQ+ councillor, retained her seat after successfully running in the municipal election in the fall of 2022.

With the St. Catharines riding being a dense urban riding, the issue of homelessness will certainly come up on the campaign trail. Stevens, on her social media, also identified healthcare as a key issue, arguing that the Ford government’s $200 taxpayer rebate cheques would have provided $3 billion that could have improved healthcare and housing. McPherson identified similar issues when nominated as the Liberal candidate.

Other candidates in the riding are Stephen Vincelette-Smith (Green Party), Rob Atalick (New Blue Party) and Devon St. Denis-Richard (None of the Above Party).

Niagara Falls

PC: Ruth-Ann Nieuwesteeg

LIB: Shafoli Kapur

GR: Celia Taylor

NDP: Wayne Gates (I)

The provincial riding of Niagara Falls encompasses the three municipalities that border the Niagara River (Niagara Falls, Fort Erie and Niagara-on-the-Lake). Of Niagara’s ridings, it has the largest population, with 146,404 residents, as per the 2021 census.

Since 2014, the riding has been held by Wayne Gates (NDP). The former president of a union local, he was a Niagara Falls City Councillor from 2010 until he contested the February 2014 by-election, flipping the seat held by the Liberals. The 2014 general election happened four months later, in which he won with 47.4 percent of the vote. Gates won the subsequent elections with 50.8 percent (2018) and 48 percent (2022) of the vote.

The popularity of Gates in the riding may account for the fact that the Liberals have yet to find a candidate willing to run in February’s election. Since the decimation of the Ontario Liberals in the 2014 general election, no Niagara riding has seen a Liberal candidate achieve better than third place, but the Party’s results have been most dire in the Niagara Falls riding, with the candidate in the last two elections achieving less than 10 percent of the vote.  

Challenging Gates is Ruth-Ann Nieuwesteeg for the PCs. The proprietor, of the Patterson Funeral Home in Niagara Falls, entered politics winning a seat on Niagara City Council in the October 2022 municipal election. Nieuwesteeg has been vocal at City Council meetings on the issue of homelessness, criticizing the Niagara Region’s placement of shelters in the municipality. She floated the idea at one meeting of having regular delegations to bring attention to the homeless issue, especially to the upper levels of government responsible for the issue. 

Looking to flip the riding blue, the PCs have push big investments in the area during their time in office. The government continued with the development of the South Niagara hospital, first started under the governing Liberals; has mused about expanding gaming, making Niagara Falls akin to Las Vegas, and in the myriad of pre-election announcements, committed $15.7 million to the reconstruction and widening of McLeod Road in Niagara Falls.

For Gates, the February vote is a “completely unnecessary election.” He posted that the cost of the election, which he estimates at $200 million, would be enough money for more than 2,500 registered nurses or 420 affordable housing units. 

As per Elections Ontario, this election is forecasted to cost $189 million up from the 2022 general election cost of $145.3 million.

The Green Party candidate for Niagara Falls is Celia Taylor, who has worked as law clerk and trained as a paralegal. A lifelong local, she champions accessible justice, green policies, and sustainable development.

In light of the dismal showings over the last two provincial elections, the Liberals have had difficulty finding a candidate to contest the Niagara Falls riding. With less than a week until the deadline, the local riding association finally announced a candidate, Shafoli Kapur.

Ms. Kapur immigrated to Canada from India in 2009. After coming to this country, she became a licensed immigration consultant and established Tdot Immigration Inc., in North York. She does not appear to have any previous connection to Niagara.

Niagara Falls city council critic, Joedy Burdett, has filed to run as an independent candidate.

Niagara Centre

PC: Bill Steele

LIB: Damien O’Brien

GR: Natashia Bergen

NDP: Jeff Burch (I)

The Niagara Centre riding consists of Welland, Port Colborne, Thorold and the south end of St. Catharines. Welland has been traditionally an NDP stronghold.

Like his NDP counterpart in St. Catharines, Jennie Stevens, Jeff Burch was first elected in the 2018 general election, winning re-election four years later.  He first ran to become an MPP in 1995, losing to Jim Bradley in the St. Catharines riding. He served on St. Catharines City Council from 2006 to 2014. Burch ran unsuccessfully for Mayor of St. Catharines in the 2014 municipal election. Like his colleague Wayne Gates, Burch has union experience and has also served as the CEO of the Niagara Folk Arts Multicultural Centre. He currently resides in Thorold.

Burch won the 2018 election by 3,300 votes over former Wainfleet mayor April Jeffs. In 2022, he bested current Regional Councillor (Port Colborne) Fred Davies by two percent and a little over 800 votes. Burch will have a formidable opponent again, as the PC candidate is Bill Steele. 

The third-generation owner of an insurance business in Port Colborne, Steele served on City Council for 17 years. In 2018, he successfully won the race for mayor, being re-elected in 2022, when his only opponent was his estranged brother, Charles.

Steele will be campaigning on his economic development record since becoming Mayor of Port Colborne. Last year, the municipality saw the announcements of a $1.56 billion electric vehicle battery separator plant, the first xanthan gum facility to be built in Canada and a $33-million biofuel terminal. Steele has taken to his social media attempting to portray Burch as anti-business. 

Burch has been focusing on the issues of health care in Niagara Centre, especially the possible closure of the Urgent Care Centre in Port Colborne. He has criticized the Ford government for having “no real plan” to address the lack of affordable housing and promises that NDP “is committed to taking back provincial responsibility for shelters and homelessness prevention programs, making substantial investments in mental health care, and overseeing the construction of affordable and supportive housing.”

The Liberal candidate for Niagara Centre is Damien O’Brien, who has been the Executive Vice President of the Ontario Liberal Party since March 2023. O’Brien’s LinkedIn page lists him as being from Hamilton but he attended Brock University, where he founded the Young Liberal campus association in 2005. 

O’Brien has worked in Ottawa, as Director of Parliamentary Affairs for the Offices of the Minister of Natural Resources (Hon. Seamus O’Regan) and Minister of Labour and Seniors (Hon. Steve MacKinnon), as well as being a Senior Advisor to the (Provincial) Minister of Government and Consumer Services, David Orazietti from 2014 to 2016.

The Ontario Green Party has yet to announce its candidate in the Niagara Centre riding. 

The last candidate of the four main parties to register with Elections Ontario was Natashia Bergen, representing the Green Party in the Niagara Centre riding. Ms. Bergen is a resident of Welland who previously worked as a Grow Technician at Phoena in Pelham. She has a horticultural certificate from the University of Guelph.

The deadline for nominations closed on Thursday, February 13th at 2:00 p.m.

Email: [email protected]

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