PC government’s carbon-heavy energy plan is reversing Peel’s emission reduction gains

When global leaders, including Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, recently convened for the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP 29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, a revealing analysis by Environmental Defence shed light on a concerning reality: 28 members of our delegation had direct ties to the fossil fuel industry and were granted Party badges by governments in Canada. 

COP meetings are about negotiations and debates aimed at assessing global progress towards limiting climate change. But with so many fossil fuel lobbyists in attendance, the question is—what are they doing there?

Canada is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer and the fifth-largest natural gas producer. The two sectors are responsible for nearly a third of Canada’s total greenhouse gas emissions, while also representing a significant share of the nation’s economic output and employment. 

Lobbyists balance the scale by piling on arguments of economic growth and jobs while lifting environmental concerns, keeping the weight tipped in favour of the fossil fuel sector. Securing a seat at the table during critical climate talks at COP is a key move in making that influence possible.

Ontario is the second worst polluter in the country and a major transportation hub for North America.

(The Pointer files)

Ontario is the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases after Alberta, and was responsible for generating 157 megatonnes of carbon emissions in 2022, according to the annual national inventory of emissions report.

The oil and gas sector in Ontario alone contributed 8.7 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in the same year. Of this total, 2.0 megatonnes were linked to production, processing, and transmission, while 6.7 megatonnes came from petroleum refining and natural gas distribution.

In 2023, Ontario's natural gas production averaged 6.2 million cubic feet per day, amounting to about 3 percent of Canada’s total natural gas output, with most of this production taking place in southern Ontario.

In the same year, Ontario’s electricity sector emitted 3.8 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, representing eight percent of total Canadian emissions from power generation. 

While 87 percent of Ontario’s electricity is generated from carbon-free sources such as hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar, the remaining portion is derived from natural gas plants, especially during peak demand hours. 

A June 2024 report by The Atmospheric Fund (TAF) suggests that natural gas is increasingly being relied upon to provide baseload power, a shift that has led to a significant rise in emissions from electricity generation.

This shift has led to electricity emissions in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) surge by 28 percent and 26 percent in 2022 and 2023.

The 2023 Carbon Emissions Inventory by TAF shows carbon emissions in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area increased 2 percent in 2023, from 53.5 million tonnes in 2022 to 54.5 million tonnes, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

Buildings make up 45 percent of all GTHA emissions and largely come from natural gas used for space heating and natural gas plants used for generating electricity.  

The provincial electricity grid became 30 percent more carbon-intensive in 2023 due to an increased reliance on natural gas generation, undermining the progress made in previous years to reduce emissions. 

“This factor alone increased GTHA emissions by 885 kilotonnes in 2023, and undermines the overall electrification pathway to decarbonizing buildings and transportation,” the report notes.

This comes at a time when an 11 percent annual decrease is needed to hit 2030 targets across the GTHA.

Emissions by region in 2023.

(The Atmospheric Fund)

The GTHA accounts for nearly 50 percent of the province's total emissions, with Peel Region being the second-largest emitter after Toronto, contributing 11.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Buildings and transportation emissions represent over 83 percent of total emissions in the region with buildings being the number one source of urban emissions, primarily in Brampton and Mississauga.

(The Atmospheric Fund)

The report shows that building emissions in Peel dropped by 0.2 percent, mainly because natural gas use for heating went down by 4.6 percent, especially in homes. This was due to a warmer winter in 2023, with fewer days needing heating. 

While this may seem like good news because people used slightly less electricity, emissions from electricity actually increased by 30 percent due to an “increase in carbon intensity of the provincial grid.”

In an interview with The Pointer, Ekaterina Tzekova, Director of Research and Innovation at TAF, stated that electricity emissions are effectively doubling every few years, a trend that is expected to continue according to various projections. 

But the core concern is that “Not only are we doubling every couple of years, we're doubling a bigger number.” 

She emphasizes that the province need to step up and focus on developing clean, utility-scale electricity sources and “removing barriers to renewable energy development” such as ending the offshore wind moratorium,extending Community Net Metering province-wide, and increasing the microgeneration threshold from 10 kW to at least 20 kW.

Another key finding was that transportation emissions increased by an average of 5 percent across all municipalities in Peel, with Caledon seeing the highest emissions from this sector. 

While traffic along Highway 10 may contribute to this, the growth in dump trucks transporting aggregate to and from quarries in the area also plays a significant role. 

According to the MTO’s 2015 Peel Commercial Vehicle Travel Profile, trucks carrying minerals, primarily gravel, make up 6 percent of commercial vehicle trips (29,000 weekly trips) but account for 20 percent of the cargo weight in the region (642,000 tonnes weekly). 

Former Caledon Councillor Ian Sinclair had also warned in 2019, “We’re heading toward 40,000 average annual vehicle trips a day. It’s becoming a major funnel for heavy freight vehicles,” emphasizing the need for the council to address road safety concerns as well as environmental degradation.

In Peel, a “mode shift in use of private vehicles, and specifically internal gas combustion engine vehicles” was impacted emissions level along with back to office policies, according to Tzekova.

The Pointer has previously reported on how the construction of Highway 413 and highway tunnel 401 will likely fuel induced demand—where adding more roads results in more private vehicles on the streets. Yet, the province continues to prioritize road expansion, rather than investing in public transit or multimodal transportation options, despite repeated calls for these alternatives from both experts and residents.

However, it’s not all bad news as Peel municipalities saw an average increase of 54 percent in electric vehicle adoption, with Brampton leading at a considerable 58 percent growth, followed by Mississauga at 53 percent and Caledon at 50 percent, according to the TAF report.

In a statement to The Pointer, Christine Tu, Director of Climate Change and Energy Management for the Region of Peel, confirmed that the region is continuing to electrify its fleet. This includes 50 Zero Emission Vehicles (EVs) for both Peel Region and Peel Regional Police, along with over 100 EV charging stations in operation.

In addition, Mississauga launched a micro-mobility program that includes a fleet of 300 electric bikes and 900 electric scooters, while Brampton made over 750 e-scooters available to the public as part of their e-scooter pilot program.

The TAF report recommends accelerating electric vehicle adoption through strategic funding, including renewing and expanding Ontario’s Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Program to cover multi-family buildings and fast charging in urban areas. 

It also suggests offering purchase incentives for low- and modest-income households, tax credits for medium- and heavy-duty vehicle infrastructure, and integrating smart charging incentives into the province’s Electricity Energy Efficiency Framework. 

By allocating a portion of the funds used to attract EV manufacturing plants, Ontario can boost local EV adoption, reduce urban air pollution, and lower fuel costs for residents, while attracting further supply chain investments.

Additionally, the town of Caledon and city of Mississauga adopted green development standards for new construction in 2024.

(The Atmospheric Fund)

The region of Peel confirmed that they are also continuing to implement the Region’s Net Zero Emission Building Policy & Standard for New Construction with ten new buildings currently being designed and constructed to be Net Zero Emission.

The TAF report recommends modernizing the Ontario Building Code (OBC) to align with Tier 2 of the 2020 National Energy Code of Canada for Buildings and Tier 4 of the National Building Code. It also suggests implementing EV readiness requirements and establishing a schedule for updating to the highest tiers of national codes, providing regulatory certainty for the industry.

By raising the standards for new home construction across the province, the report highlights that efficient homes will lower energy bills, ease the financial burden on municipalities, and create more job opportunities in the trades.

As part of its efforts in reducing carbon emissions, the Ash Grove Cement plant in Mississauga is developing a plan to shift towards alternative low-carbon fuels. This initiative will also help divert non-recyclable materials used in other industrial and commercial processes from landfills.

The region of Peel also confirmed that the pilot project that diverted biosolids at G.E. Booth Wastewater Treatment Plant away from incineration to beneficial land application also contributed to bringing emissions down. 

Additionally, the City of Mississauga and the Region of Peel recently celebrated the groundbreaking of Lakeview Village, Canada's largest district energy system, which will leverage treated wastewater, or effluent, from the G.E. Booth Water Resource Recovery Facility as its primary source of low-carbon energy.

Tu stated that through such projects and initiatives the region is taking action on Peel-owned operations, but electricity generation falls under "Scope 2 emissions," which are controlled by the Province of Ontario. 

“Scope 2 emission are rising and scheduled to continue to rise. This will add to the challenge of meeting the Region’s 2030 GHG reduction target. Continued advocacy to the Province to phase out natural gas from electricity generation in Ontario remains a priority,” she added.

Beyond Peel, residents in Niagara are also making strides by shifting to heat pumps to reduce reliance on natural gas, while spreading awareness about the benefits of such alternatives.

This raises a crucial question: Why is the province falling behind in its efforts to reduce emissions, especially when municipalities are taking action?

Instead, the PC government is advancing policies like the Natural Gas Expansion Program, which is expanding natural gas access to 43 additional communities with over $234 million in funding for Phase 2, despite clear evidence that emissions are continuing to rise.

Tzekova explains that “one common misconception is that cost-effective electricity is directly tied to natural gas usage, but that's not necessarily the case.” 

Achieving cost-effective electrification involves focusing on non-emitting energy sources and improving how we use electricity. She says clean electricity doesn’t have to be unaffordable, and measures like microgeneration, distributed energy resources, and energy conservation are key. 

Brampton’s Goreway gas plant which produces dirty electricity is up for expansion under the Doug Ford PC government. 

(The Pointer file photo) 

By “decentralizing electricity production a little bit more” and using it more efficiently, we can make electricity both clean and affordable without relying on natural gas, she explained.

The Pointer reached out to Ontario’s Minister of Energy and Electrification Stephen Lecce's office for a response regarding the province’s continued reliance on carbon-intensive energy sources, but did not receive a reply by the time of publication.

We also reached out to other political parties to learn about their plans to reduce reliance on oil and gas for electricity generation and cut emissions, but only the Green Party provided a response.

The Green party recently tabled the No Free Ride for Fossil Fuels Act, which would, if passed, “stop the fossil fuel subsidy that Ontario municipalities are currently required to give Enbridge and create revenue for our communities that could be spent on housing, schools and other things we need,” Green party of Ontario leader Mike Schreiner said.

"The Ford government's close ties with the oil and gas sector is fuelling the climate crisis and driving up the cost of living. Greens are fighting to get oil and gas out of government pockets and invest in cleaner, cheaper renewables,” Schreiner added.

Tzekova expresses optimism about the latest report, noting that it provides a clear understanding of where changes are needed. "We know which policies are working and which ones are starting to show results; it's now a matter of accelerating progress," she says. 

Achieving this, she emphasizes, requires “all three levels of government working together” to ensure that the gains made at one level aren’t undermined by others.

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